See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Oh yes, via Bloomie:
In the bond market, the yield curve for overnight index swaps — a gauge of expectations for short-term rates — has inverted, showing that traders expect the RBA’s cash rate to be slightly lower than the current 1.5 per cent in a year’s time.
Similarly, the cash-rate futures market is now suggesting about 10 per cent chance of a cut in the second half of next year, and less than 5 per cent for a hike.
…”If things really turn down here and you’ve got some serious declines in house prices, probably mid-60s would be the floor on the Aussie” against the dollar, said Craig Vardy, head of fixed income, Australia, at BlackRock in Sydney.
I noted yesterday as well that the yield curve is flattening fast:
With a catch down to US inversion in the offing:
The RBA’s lunatic bulls are always the last to know:
David Llewellyn-Smith is chief strategist at the MacroBusiness Fund and MacroBusiness Super, which is overweight international equities versus Australian to benefit from a falling AUD.