Via Goldman:
Allison Nathan: How do you expect the midterm elections to play out?
Alec Phillips: It’s hard to argue with the consensus view that Republicans will hold the Senate and Democrats will win the House majority. Polling suggests the chances of the Democrats gaining the Senate majority have declined in recent weeks, but they appear to be ahead in about 30 Republican-held House seats, more than the 23 they need to win the House majority. Generic ballot polling also still points clearly to a Democratic-led House. And Democrats still seem to have a turnout advantage judging by their larger share of the vote among people “likely” to vote, as opposed to those who are simply registered. That said, polling for the House is particularly unreliable and many of the races that are leaning Democratic are only doing so by a slim margin; so the marginal races that will actually determine control are tighter than what some headlines suggest. That raises the risks around the base case of a divided Congress, though I still agree it’s the most likely outcome.
