UBS forecasts Bad Santa for retailers

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By Leith van Onselen

UBS has forecast that Australian retailers’ discretionary sales will grow by just 1.2% year-on-year during the Christmas 2018 period, compared with around 3% in the last three years. Ben Gilbert of UBS says the expectation of weaker retail sales has yet to be reflected in official data, but that a number of retailers have already downgraded their earnings forecasts or warned of the difficult trading conditions. From The Australian:

“While this is yet to show up in ABS figures we expect Christmas to be challenging, creating risk to forecasts,’’ Mr Gilbert said.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.