ScoMo concedes federal election

Via The Australian:

Scott Morrison is promising to open an intimate war with Bill Shorten over the next six months, using his clear personal electoral dominance over the Opposition Leader to redefine the political battleground.

As former prime minister John Howard warned senior Coalition figures to hold their nerve after the disastrous Liberal rout in Victoria, the Prime Minister called for internal calm and directly warned the more unpopular Mr Shorten that the next election was a contest “between me and you”.

In a strategic move on the back of a Newspoll showing Mr Morrison stretching his advantage over Mr Shorten in the leadership contest, the Prime Minister invoked previous leadership campaigns that had pitted Paul Keating against John Hewson and Mr Howard against Mark Latham.

That is pretty much the dumbest thing I have heard in some time. Any political scientist that has tracked polls for any length of time can tell you that preferred leaders and parties have only the faintest connection. Shorten will not be drawn into such irrelevance. He knows his personal appeal sucks. That’s why he’s gone all-in on policy. He’s already survived a dodgy royal commission into unions with barely a scratch. Aside from anything else, the polity is desperate for authenticity and personal attacks is the opposite. And for it to matter ScoMo has to have more credibility. A very long bow.

While ScoMo is pointlessly throwing spit bombs at Bill Shorten, the Labor machine has policies that will give it a line of howitzers to fire at the Government, via the AFR:

Federal Liberals are in shock at Mr Andrews’ thumping defeat of their Victorian state colleagues, and deputy campaign manager Kos Samaras, campaign manager Sam Rae and their Victorian Labor team have already started work on the 2019 federal campaign with federal Labor leader Bill Shorten.

…Labor’s state election campaign message – “Delivering for all Victorians” – saturated social media, television, newspapers, radio and billboards. Liberal Party sources concede the slogan and the ads were simple and brilliant. The high rotation presence of these hard-hitting ads made possible by superior funding probably “bit hard” and shifted undecided voters to Labor in the last week, making the swing even bigger than polls predicted.

…By contrast, he says the Liberals’ inexperienced, first-time campaigners were like “bringing a knife to a gun fight” and the Liberals’ failure to buy enough advertising hurt them.

This election is going to be another Liberal annihilation.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Unless Scomo pulls the immigration hail Mary then Bill is in on the usual Australian spirit of “vote for the other guy because I don’t like this one.”

    Then the honeymoon period and then business as usual. Hope for an expanded crossbench and greens wipe out in the Senate.

    • Immigration reform didn’t save Guy. I think they underestimate how pissed off the populace is with Federal Coalition antics. It’s only a matter of time until the next circus show plays out.

      • I’m talking proper reform, not the sleight of hand 30k “push them onto bridging visas” cut. If they came out with a return to zero net and a student visa overhaul then they would win. Unlikely they will play that card though.

        Guy was never going to win so I don’t think federal antics have much play here. I think the Fed Libs would prefer to hand over the housing crash keys to Labor and snipe from the sidelines.

      • The type of people who place immigration cuts above all other policy are already going to mark the Liberals higher on the ballot than Labor, irrespective of whether there are announced cuts or not.

      • In the past I would have completely agreed with that statement but now I wouldn’t – it’s the number one issue at this election and it’s affecting everyone across the traditional political spectrum. Just some are more overt about it than others IMO.

      • Immigration reform didn’t save Guy

        Guy didn’t run on immigration reform and didn’t refer to it during his campaign, so it ‘s not a great surprise it didn’t save him.

      • @Robert, just google “Guy Immigration Victoria” Any number of articles will pop-up detailing his flirtation with the electorate on the issue.

      • This one?

        Seems to be a lot of waffle that ultimately supports big Australia, but with the same send em to bush concept ScoMo was talking about when he first came to office, and that no one seems to buy. Here are some of the choicest bits:

        “We need population growth but it needs to be the right growth in the right places at the right time.

        …the explosion in our population is … also an incredibly exciting opportunity.

        We need to regionalise our growth, and not just focus on Melbourne alone.

        My vision for Victoria is to be a state of cities and not a city state. We need population growth in the right areas, at the right time.”

        Basically the idea seems to be that every Victorian town from Horsham to Lakes Entrance should be as jam-packed as Melbourne.

        Certainly no sign he believes Victoria’s population growth needs to fall – rather the opposite. Worse, electorally speaking, seeing as ScoMo was talking about it before he was, it looked like a borrowed Federal Lib brain fart, which doesn’t usually go over well in a state election, unless the Federal government is very popular in that particular state.

      • Last week Bill Shorten when asked about cutting immigration referred to the 1.2 million working visa holders in this country.
        Although he did not go so far as to say he would cut them .
        Cutting migrant numbers will do nothing in the short to medium term in cutting congestion of roads , trains, hospitals or schools,
        the migrants are already here and are not going away.
        Cutting working visa’s ,on the other hand, has an immediate effect, and ties in nicely with Labor’s policy of rejuvenating TAFE and training more young Australians.
        Shorten may have an ace up the sleeve.

      • Last week Bill Shorten when asked about cutting immigration referred to the 1.2 million working visa holders in this country.
        Although he did not go so far as to say he would cut them .

        Certainly if it was a choice between cutting PRs and cutting tempts, at the moment the temps look like the bigger problem.
        Of course, if there’s a recession for any reason, the stock of temps will plummet faster than Liberal party popularity when the businesses they work for fold overnight.

    • Those morons just can’t get past “kill bill”.
      If these people had a political brain (which they don’t) they would know that oppositions don’t win elections in Australia but governments lose them. Kill Tony didn’t work in 2013 so why will Kill Bill work now? It won’t.
      Governments are returned on their record and policies for the future. Not on making the opposition leader look bad.

      This is just one more example showing that Scummo is BAD AT POLITICS. He might be a cunning slimy snake but he is not good at actually understanding community values in the way required to win elections.

      Older school politicians were better at politics. Period. They knew how to channel community values into winnable policies and then deliver them. Not now. On both sides.

      • I think the people who are better at politics are smart enough not to go anywhere near parliament in the current economic climate, or at least hide in the background until things improve.
        Who wants to be known as the guy who was PM for an economic disaster.

  2. Funny how the libs keep complaining of not having enough money… women hate them, the young hate them and now even big business hates them. Their “Base” don’t make donations… lols all round.

  3. GunnamattaMEMBER

    I hope ScoMo was wearing a baseball cap when he said that.

    I dont like Shorten, but suspect ScoMo may not get out enough to really know just how reviled he is.

    ……and I really do think a journalist should ask him live on-air

    ….…’Prime Minister, have you ever talked in tongue or been in the presence of someone who was talking in tongue or who claimed they had seen or believed in people who did talk in tongue? Could you explain for the people of Australia the significance of talking in tongue, and why it could be an important part of their lives?

    And maybe even

    …..and could you do that with a baseball cap on Prime Minister?

    • Murdoch media. My father in-law, an avid Daily Telegraph reader, is absolutely scathing of Bill Shorten. Yet he cannot articulate to me why.

      I think it is a type of coping mechanism, nurtured by Murdoch media outlets. Sees the mob of degenerates that he has consistently voted for making a mockery of government, so needs to convince himself the alternative is somehow much much worse.

    • Baggage and persona. Baggage:he on the knifing of.Rudd twicea d Gillard once. Persona: he doesn’t project well. He tries to be tough, rather than thoughtful and doesn’t quite pull it off. He is therefore perceived as a weak man trying to be something else, that subconsciously feeds a.perception of inauthentic ITT and therefore untrustworthy.

      • All those, and much more, can be applied to Liberal and Nationals leadership, as recently as a couple of months ago… yet somehow Bill Shorten is worse.

        It is a profile you’ve formed off the back of someone else’s opinion/tailored coverage. In other words, much like my father in-law, your subconscious bias has been shaped for you.

      • Exactly. When people say they don’t like Shorten, I ask them why?

        They sort of think about it and stutter out “I don’t know why I don’t like him, I just don’t!” or it’s something about unions.

        Gillard however is easier “She lied!”

    • I spent 4 weeks travelling with my older sister who hates Shorten – again for no real reasons – not even the reasons I know (changing wives, etc.). A fascinating phenomena.

      I had to remind her that Shorten’s union mates at least pay tax and do not send their excessive incomes out of the country 🙂

    • he’s a ruthless cold uncaring big breasted king slayer who, also, names anyone questioning mass out of control immigration a political extremist, the man stands for nothing and will do anything to stay labor leader, he’s no better then abbott, rudd or Gillard…. he’s also got an Estrogen problem

      • The only people ever likely to make it to leader of a political party are those willing to do anything to remain leader, why would you expect him to be otherwise?

      • You have just described every politician in the last 15 years.

        Not sure why Shorten gets singled out for so much hate, when he’s exactly like every other bugger in power.

      • every politician in the last 15 years has knifed 2 x PMs in the back hey
        every politician in the last 15 years has labelled anyone questioning mass immigration a political extremist
        Boobs shorten is supposed to be leading a Labor party yet he is a corrupt big Australia tool denying any link between massive immigration and wage stagnation

        The argument that every other politician is heinous as well doesn’t relieve boobs of any responsibility

      • “every politician in the last 15 years has knifed 2 x PMs in the back”
        A majority of both labor and liberal federal parliament, yes, given the number of pm changes we’ve seen.

    • To me, he exudes insincerity. His every public pronouncement sounds wooden and scripted and delivered like he knows he’s telling lies to a class of slightly thick school children. He gives the impression that he is not sincere about a single thing he’s ever spoken of.

      He’s obviously a tremendous back room influence trader and maker of late night deals with the other pimps, gimps, psychos and grifters in parliament, but his public persona in my view is one of complete insincerity and untrustworthiness. The fact that he’s less popular with the punters than ScoMo, who is one of the most repugnant figures in recent Australian political history, speaks volumes about him.

      • As bad as bill shorten may be (and I don’t warm to him) Scummo is even worse. Scummo is the slimiest snake there is.

  4. Liberal Party will not exist within 5 years in any meaningful shape.

    Called it the day Tony Abbott first won.

      • Yep, and the brains on the sofa on Insiders were questioning the future viability of the Liberal Party after the Kevin 07 landslide. I also found some archival clips of talking heads questioning if John Hewson’s birthday cake induced disaster at the 93 election was the beginning the end for the Liberal Party.

        When the Liberal Party’s end does come I expect it will be more like a thief in the night than a grand pronouncement from the media’s self-appointed prophets.

    • We call this a “Progressive Society” 🙂

      Part of it is the inevitable “Evolution” of us as human species 🙂

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Scottyboy knows his days are numbered and so does his party,…I predict they’ll put of the election for as long as possible.
    They (the LNP) will now be setting themselves up to be an obstructionist opposition, this is their strategy now, demonizing Bill has as much to do with this goal as defeating the ALP at the polls.
    Its good for the Conservative faction of the Liberal party that Scottyboy got up over Turnbull, he can be scape goated and Abbott can become opposition leader again, a roll he was much more effective at, in comparison to his woeful Prime Ministership.
    They are already organising themselves for opposition.
    Expect a few vindictive, final swings at enemies whilst they still hold power,…ABC, progressives etc.

    • What a depressing thought. Particularly because it’s not unreasonable given the optics. ScoMo is busy squandering his popularity. The LNP has discovered that policy to please rural QLD doesn’t translate to the rest of the country. Experience has taught me not to write them off for too long, but the road back needs reform of the new right wing branch structures. I also question if Australian society respects thoughtfulness.over rabid certainty. After.all Abbott got up and is still around. We need a good opposition, not just a negative one.

      • To win city votes you need to rip off the country and regions more and more and more to keep th over-entitled cities going in the manner to which they want. This process must now accelerate to finance the backlog of infrastructure due as a result of the mass immigration policy.
        So you’re right to an extent – trying to give productive sectors a fair go is anathema to getting re-elected. 58% of the population lives Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and their close satellites. The media is totally concentrated in these areas as well providing a total echo chamber.
        We are totally screwed – doesn’t matter much who is in government.

      • Bauer
        Nuff said????
        If I’m wrong detail something. Some numbers! Something!!!! Explain why running an over-valued currency for 60 years is a good thing and that a Trillion dollars in debt PLUS most of our industries and resources already sold to foreigners. Explain why deliberately destroying manufacturing in favour of bloody coffee shops is a good thing. Explain how parasitising rural and regional Australia even further is a good thing. Explain why farmers, regularly, go round the back of the shed and blow their heads off with a .243 and that is a good thing we are going to now do our best to encourage!
        I REALLY REALLY want someone to give me answers to the this stuff.
        I really am tired of BS politically driven responses to observations.

      • “I REALLY REALLY want someone to give me answers to this stuff”
        Because none of that stuff directly effects the pollies and their mates/backers.
        And the unwashed masses are simply not even worthy of consideration to our ruling elite.
        You expecting something else?

      • HadronCollisionMEMBER

        isnt he the guy that was outed for doing a private BRI related briefing to Chinese interests? as posted on MB

    • @EP
      “–he can be scape goated and Abbott can become opposition leader again – -”
      — yes agree. How hard would it be to take Abbott’s seat ? That should be a priority!

  6. So Socmo actually thinks he is popular. oh my gawd…the man is delusional or maybe he’s just speaking in tongues and it’s me that’s not hearing what he is really saying. I suspect this Pentecostal mouth piece is in desperate need a Scottish kiss to restore some reality to his world.

    • True. They are also talking policy as opposed to trash talking the other side.

      I don’t know about everyone else, but I’m really, really tired of the government bringing up Bill Shortens name every time they are asked a question about what policy or what they are currently doing.

      They prevaricate away from the question and blame someone who isn’t in power and who’s party hasn’t been in power for 5 years, for their mistakes or lack of action.

      I don’t care what the opposition is doing. They are not running the government. Answer the damn question and quit with the negativity.

      “Play the ball, not the man.”

  7. He’s better off getting the Russians to ram a tug boat in Sydney Harbour and declare martial law so the elections don’t go ahead. Or at least claiming so.

    • Don’t even need that, just say that the Russians were cyberhacking the grocery code of conduct website and deploy the troops.

  8. If the libs were in the same ball park policy wise, it just might work, but I think enough Aussies have seen the light & won’t be sucked in as so many of their policies are now out of whack with the general population.

    • No. The Libs have driven into the iceberg of Australian debt.
      Labor is going to get stuck with the evacuation and there are not going to be enough lifeboats for everyone.

  9. “Scott Morrison is promising to open an intimate war with Bill Shorten over the next six months”

    I take this to mean that Scomo has some dirt on Shorten. Is he going to bring up the non-consent allegation from the 1980’s or is there something else?