Macro Afternoon

A fairly muted response to the big surge on Wall Street overnight here in Asia today, with modest gains outside of China, while the Middle Kingdom share markets suffered a small setback. The USD continued its selloff however, especially against Yen and Kiwi, while the Aussie dollar remains above 73 cents.

The Shanghai Composite is down 0.3% to 2594 points going into the close, after recently making  traction to get back above key support at the 2600 point level, its now treated on trade concerns.  The Hang Seng Index is off even more, down around 0.5% to 26500 points, after previously building above the previous support level at 26000 points as the the daily chart was starting to stabilize:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart showing how its coming up against significant resistance at the the 2745 point level from several weeks ago (horizontal black line on the left) after last nights epic fightback:

Japanese stocks have put in another solid day despite a much stronger Yen, as the Nikkei 225 closed nearly 0.5% higher to 22275 points.  The USDJPY pair continues its selloff after last nights sudden hit on the brakes due to Fed Chair Powells revised comment on the trajectory of US rate rises. The pair is now below trailing ATR support on the four hourly chart and could retrace to the 113 handle fully tonight:

The ASX200 finally put some runs on the board, despite a much stronger Aussie, lifting nearly 0.6% to 5758 points, maintaining itself above the previous 5700 point support area. The Aussie dollar has blipped higher after a big move higher overnight with a surge above the 73 handle for the first time in two weeks – but can it maintain this level as resistance bears (sic) down:

The economic calendar has two major European and American releases to watch tonight, first German unemployment then EZ wide CPI, followed by US Core PCE and the release of the latest FOMC minutes.

Comments

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Why do they still call these events shocking? They’re an everyday occurrence.

      The news services should just have a scoreboard telling us how many there were during the day.

    • You will never see, in Australia, the results of any research on the correlation between how multicultural a community is and the rates of crime and violence. The truth and facts don’t align with the political ideology and propaganda that Australia has been indoctrinated in and will be strongly censored.

    • Lorne is a great example of this – 40% of Lorne is now Air BnB.

      Awesome.

      Restaurants and businesses in this town are paying the most absurd rates + rental – they have January to make their annual profits.

      The rent on the premises are staggering – but finding staff is even more ridiculous – because – accommodation – so you have to pay more and more.

      There are a dozen places that always do well – and the rest are changing hands every three years as people go bankrupt.

      Cash only.

      Glorious.

  1. WTF,today my SME just received first ever export order to a mining company in SEA? US$ arrived in my account today, apparently US supplier not wanting to export due to strong local demand. Maybe Trump is good for the Australian economy?

  2. Latest top 25 Melbourne suburbs to fall most (houses) in the latest downturn. This has changed a lot since CoreLogic revised their data after 1 November. This data is up to August, there is no other more recent data for suburb breakdown that I can find and any more recent would be inaccurate anyway.

    Here ’tis
    toorak -22
    st kilda east -21
    armadale -20
    st kilda -16.55
    brighton -16
    caulfield -16
    south melbourne -16
    carlton -15
    fitzroy -15
    flemington -14
    north melbourne -14
    caulfield north -12
    hawthorn -12
    box hill north -11
    clayton -11
    hawthorn east -11
    heidelberg -11
    oakleigh east -11
    canterbury -10
    carlton north -10
    collingwood -10
    eaglemont -10
    edithvale -10
    malvern east -10
    mordialloc -10

    Most outer suburbs as of August data have not fallen at all.

    My opinion is that these outer suburbs will follow in the next 6 months as will the closer regional areas like Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Warragul etc. 6 months later.*

    *I sold real estate in outer Melbourne 2008-2012

      • I didn’t want to flood the whole thread with this data but i suppose it doesn’t really matter, Parkdale is -6%

        I tried to not include data from suburbs that don’t have many house sales as it can easily be skewed but still many of these suburbs can be easily skewed by various other factors. The suburbs represented by 0 means they have not fallen and many have actually risen in recent months.

        This list is ranked in the first column by house price falls in this downturn peak to trough.
        The second column being house price rises trough to peak in the last 5 years. Data for each of these is within 2 months of each other. All in %

        toorak -22 87
        st kilda east -21 62
        armadale -20 40
        st kilda -16.55 137
        brighton -16 73
        caulfield -16 76.64
        south melbourne -16 70
        carlton -15 146
        fitzroy -15 89
        flemington -14 53
        north melbourne -14 94
        caulfield north -12 67.5
        hawthorn -12 69
        box hill north -11 77
        clayton -11 91
        hawthorn east -11 131
        heidelberg -11 68
        oakleigh east -11 74
        canterbury -10 60
        carlton north -10 82.13
        collingwood -10 77
        eaglemont -10 44
        edithvale -10 74
        malvern east -10 64
        mordialloc -10 75
        mckinnon -9 78
        brunswick east -8 67
        ivanhoe -8 42
        south yarra -8 95
        ashwood -7 86
        box hill -7 131
        mont albert -7 70
        oakleigh -7 80
        prahran -7 77
        templestowe lower -7 74
        warrandyte -7 68
        albert park -6.1 57
        box hill south -6 79
        Brunswick -6 70
        forest hill -6 63
        mentone -6 63
        niddrie -6 68
        parkdale -6 75
        windsor -6 98
        ascot vale -5 61
        brunswick west -5 69
        camberwell -5 64
        elwood -5 55
        glen iris -5 57
        knoxfield -5 73
        lysterfield -5 68
        malvern -5 87
        mont albert north -5 65
        newport -5 58
        nunawading -5 74
        scoresby -5 75
        thornbury -5 62
        aspendale -4 81
        bayswater -4 77
        burwood east -4 64
        carnegie -4 76.29
        carrum -4 71
        chelsea -4 65
        coburg -4 62
        croydon -4 71
        doncaster east -4 72
        donvale -4 62
        fitzroy north -4 63
        moonee ponds -4 62
        murrumbeena -4 65
        oakleigh south -4 73
        richmond -4 54
        ringwood -4 61
        rosanna -4 62
        spotswood -4 68
        surrey hills -4 65
        templestowe -4 62
        vermont -4 73
        wheelers hill -4 61
        altona -3.16 68
        ashburton -3 88
        blackburn south -3 72
        braybrook -3 82
        bundoora -3 44
        caulfield south -3 65
        cheltenham -3 71
        clifton hill -3 63
        footscray -3 56
        glen waverley -3 64
        hadfield -3 72
        hampton -3 67
        kew -3 33
        kew east -3 52
        maribyrnong -3 46
        park orchards -3 65
        pascoe vale -3 65
        port melbourne -3 62
        reservior -3 62
        ringwood east -3 65
        viewbank -3 59
        avondale heights -2 59
        balwyn north -2 57
        bentleigh -2 61
        blackburn -2 67
        bulleen -2 69
        burwood -2 80
        clayton south -2 61
        dingley village -2 61
        elsternwick -2 69
        glenroy -2 72
        greensborough -2 58
        heidelberg heights -2 61
        kingsville -2 61
        lalor -2 88
        lynbrook -2 53
        macleod -2 45
        mill park -2 66
        mitcham -2 68
        montmorency -2 62
        mount waverley -2 72
        northcote -2 69
        preston -2 60
        ringwood north -2 52
        strathmore -2 72
        vermont south -2 65
        wantirna -2 67
        wantirna south -2 80
        west footscray -2 67
        airport west -1.74 64
        patterson lakes -1.65 45
        altona north -1 65
        bayswater north -1 57
        beaumaris -1 54
        bentleigh east -1 67
        berwick -1 53
        croydon north -1 62
        dandenong -1 56
        doncaster -1 72
        eltham -1 56
        endeavour hills -1 64
        ferntree gully -1 68
        hampton east -1 75
        hurstbridge -1 53
        kensington -1 49
        kilsyth -1 64
        lilydale -1 56
        montrose -1 63
        mooroolbark -1 68
        narre warren south -1 53
        officer -1 81
        pascoe vale south -1 49
        rowville -1 56
        sandringham -1 57
        seaford -1 68
        somerville -1 58
        sorrento -1 75
        springvale south -1 74
        st albans -1 79
        sunshine -1 79
        sunshine west -1 72
        tootgarook -1 66
        warranwood -1 57
        albanvale 0 76
        altona meadows 0 69
        aspendale gardens 0 58
        balwyn 0 55
        belgrave 0 58
        blackrock 0 62.8
        blackburn north 0 60
        bonbeach 0 53
        boronia 0 66
        Botanic ridge 0 43
        brighton east 0 53
        broadmeadows 0 77
        brookfield 0 39
        burnside heights 0 42
        cairnlea 0 47
        capel sound 0 58.5
        caroline springs 0 41
        carrum downs 0 71
        chadstone 0 59
        chelsea heights 0 66
        chirnside park 0 66
        clyde north 0 88
        coburg north 0 53
        cockatoo 0 58
        craigieburn 0 53
        cranbourne 0 71
        cranbourne east 0 46
        cranbourne north 0 58
        cranbourne west 0 67
        croydon south 0 76
        croydon hills 0 61
        dallas 0 67
        dandenong north 0 65
        deer park 0 67
        delahey 0 56
        diamond creek 0 54
        doreen 0 45
        doveton 0 73
        dromana 0 59
        eltham north 0 47
        emerald 0 58
        epping 0 66
        essendon 0 69
        fawkner 0 77
        frankston 0 77
        frankston north 0 95
        frankston south 0 54
        gladstone park 0 67
        greenvale 0 46
        hallam 0 74
        hampton park 0 65
        hastings 0 48
        heathmont 0 56
        heidelberg west 0 73
        highett 0 80
        hoppers crossing 0 68
        ivanhoe east 0 63
        Keilor 0 63
        Keilor downs 0 64
        Keilor east 0 53
        keysborough 0 81
        kings park 0 78
        langwarrin 0 66
        laverton 0 73
        lower plenty 0 49
        lyndhurst 0 51
        maidstone 0 58
        mccrae 0 59
        meadow heights 0 62
        melton 0 71
        melton south 0 78
        melton west 0 37
        mernda 0 57
        moorabbin 0 75
        mornington 0 57
        mount eliza 0 58
        mount evelyn 0 65
        mount martha 0 57
        mulgrave 0 55
        narre warren 0 69
        narre warren north 0 75
        noble park 0 73
        noble park north 0 77
        oak park 0 65
        ormond 0 68
        pakenham 0 57
        point cook 0 47
        rosebud 0 58
        roxburgh park 0 51
        rye 0 64
        safety beach 0 71
        sandhurst 0 49
        seabrook 0 64
        seddon 0 53
        south morang 0 53
        springvale 0 68
        sunshine north 0 70
        sydenham 0 57
        Tarneit 0 49
        Taylors Hill 0 49
        taylors lakes 0 53
        thomastown 0 70
        truganina 0 60
        tullamrine 0 69
        upwey 0 68
        wallan 0 45
        watsonia 0 63
        werribee 0 63
        westmeadows 0 54
        whittlesea 0 45
        williams landing 0 63
        williamstown 0 65
        wollert 0 58

    • Amazing effort again, thanks Shawn.

      Are these data publicly available from Corelogic or do you have to pay / subscribe to get it? (I’m interested in postcode-level Canberra data, haven’t found it except when Domain selectively releases a bit)