Macro Afternoon

No big news to move stocks around here in Asia, just a series of headlines over Chinese trade, Brexit and local politics to get through another trading day. Interestingly, the CBOE has increased oil future margins, which is a case of closing the door after the horse has bolted, while the latest New Zealand trade figures with record deficits hasn’t upset the Kiwi as expected.

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.1% to 2579 points going into the close, struggling to make any traction here quickly get back above key support at the 2600 point level.  The Hang Seng Index is off about the same, sitting at 26349 points, still above the previous support level at 26000 points as the the daily chart is starting to stabilize:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart showing a potential breakout above trailing ATR resistance at 2675 points or so, but there’s significant resistance above that level as well:

Japanese stocks have put in a solid day as expected, helped by a much weaker Yen from overnight, the Nikkei 225 closing 0.8% higher to 21986 points.  The USDJPY pair has come back slightly after shooting significantly above both trailing ATR resistance and the 113 handle yesterday, now in a slightly overbought trajectory:

The ASX200 played catchup by launching exacntly 1% higher today, closing at 5728 points, finally getting back above the 5700 point support area. The Aussie dollar has blipped higher after a solid retracement overnight with a surge back up to the 72.30 level, but this is looking weak going into the City open:

The economic calendar has two major releases in the US to watch closely tonight, first September house prices and then consumer confidence figures for November.

Comments

  1. CANADA: Secret police study finds crime networks could have laundered over $1B through Vancouver homes in 2016 | Globalnews.ca

    https://globalnews.ca/news/4658157/fentanyl-vancouver-real-estate-billion-money-laundering-police-study/

    The stately $17-million mansion owned by a suspected fentanyl importer is at the end of a gated driveway on one of the priciest streets in Shaughnessy, Vancouver’s most exclusive neighbourhood.

    A block away is a $22-million gabled manor that police have linked to a high-stakes gambler and property developer with suspected ties to the Chinese police services.

    MORE: Read the full Fentanyl investigation

    Both mansions appear on a list of more than $1-billion worth of Vancouver-area property transactions in 2016 that a confidential police intelligence study has linked to Chinese organized crime.

    The study of more than 1,200 luxury real estate purchases in B.C.’s Lower Mainland in 2016 found that more than 10 per cent were tied to buyers with criminal records. And 95 per cent of those transactions were believed by police intelligence to be linked to Chinese crime networks.

    The study findings, obtained by Global News, are a startling look at what police believe to be the massive money laundering occurring in the Vancouver-area real estate market. … read more via hyperlink above …

    … via …

    Chinese Fetanyl Kingpins Laundered Over $5BN Through Vancouver Homes Since 2012 | Zero Hedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-26/chinese-fetanyl-kingpins-laundered-over-5bn-through-vancouver-homes-2012

    Google Search
    ‘Vancouver Money Laundering Real Estate’

    https://www.google.co.nz/search?source=hp&ei=sdT8W8rDKJCv9QOz0LaIBg&q=vancouver+money+laundering+real+estate&oq=vancouver+moneylaundering+real+estate&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0i13j0i22i30.11584.32576

    • Trout à la Crème

      If you’re genuine, an analogy for your imagination to consider. Consider the difference between what a selfish child wants and needs. Imagine a selfish child who engages in emotional blackmail, constantly holding a gun to their feelings and engaging in incessant whinging such as at dinner time, “I want ice cream! I want ice cream! I want ice cream!” The selfish child wants ice cream but if the parents who are responsible for the selfish child give the selfish child what they want, but don’t need, then the selfish child will be temporarily satiated but lose respect for the responsible adult.

    • She seemed to be fairly specific at the end.

      “Real men don’t insult and threaten women,” she said.

      “Real men don’t slut shame them.”

      Which bit is confusing to you ?

    • No idea if that price is “right” in today’s market, but I really, really hope he gets a huge haircut on this.

      Anyone here live near Bondi?

    • About 5-10 yrs ago I remember seeing these shoddy signs, hand written with texta on cardboard taped around poles on major intersections all over Melbourne stating “we buy houses 04xmobile no.” and I thought it was dodgy as. Is this the guy?

      • I definitely saw massively dodgy looking tiny classifieds with this line, in the miserable half page of classified ads still running in the local paper.

        Targeting the most weak naive and desperate i guess.

    • Gareth Fitzsimons, Perth, Australia
      I cannot understand why the Government has not learned from the greed and mistakes of the past. How can a person, or even a couple with kids, afford to pay rent and do their weekly shopping, pay other basic bills, and try save for a deposit for a mortgage? It’s impossible on the wages people are receiving. The reason people think it’s going to crash again is the greed from landlords. Everyone is out for a quick buck before it bursts.

      The only thing that shocks me is that the Irish think it’s any better over here? I mean sure the weather is, but a lot of their complaints are the same problems over here in my humble opinion.

  2. – Contrary to common believe, a record NZ trade deficit means that the NZ economy is still VERY strong, that there is still A LOT OF demand. I only would start to worry when the Trade Deficit is contracting.
    – We saw something similar happening in the US. When the US Trade deficit started to shrink in 2007 and 2008, it was a precursor for the GFC (in the US), a precursor of the shrinking US economy.

  3. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    7.30 Report just did interest only debt bomb.

    A couple of case studies on what not to do were shown.

    One was a classic example of middle aged women looking to create her own property empire via some investment properties in Brisvegas.

    She looses her job and the loan on the IP’s go to Principal plus interest. Forced to sell inner city terrace in Sydney. In hindsight she reckons a second opinion might have come in handy.

    Tissues… nope….

    • Peak Boomer is that lie-to-your-face broker who used to be a punter here: Peter Fraser

      Or, for a more accessible analogy: any radio shock jock on talk back radio

    • You do understand that boomers is a neoliberal market based term Gav… sorta like economic science…

      Like my personal fav praexology….

      • I understand Skip, that we can’t lump em’ all in together and not all have made these financial mistakes. Not all are evil rent seekers etc.. just like not all Millennials are spoilt brats, but there is a level of truth to stereotypes also.

    • yep, there are absolutely no predictable voting or policy preference patterns within age demographics, and the superior numbers of a certain block have never been used by politicians or to that blocks advantage lol.

      • I remind that it was created out of whole cloth as a marketing study for the reason of pigeonholing vast swaths of humans [sex included] in large birth brackets and across as vast time zones. Yet this still does not square the structual component of various industry, political, or ideological groups setting up the environmental factors – at on set.

        I would also point out the similarity to the rational assumption buddy optics when its always the test subject that is in error and not the optics themselves, those that created them, or use them – see Rand experiment.

        Do try Lars blog for a deeper introspection.

    • “Didn’t know about the evangelical rising political power”

      Look into APIC uses of Pat Robinson back in Rayguns day, Christian dominionism, Bush Jr ignoring the rule on not politicizing religion wrt elections, and now Brazil: seems they’ve had a new wave of churches imported from somewhere.

    • – I disagree with the reasons given why the Liberals lost. We all know we are having “economic & financial problems” and the people are “not happy”. And the prospects for the economy are “not good”. That’s why – IMO – people now vote against the incumbent (party) and that’s currently the Liberal party. If Labor would have been the incumbent party then we the voters of Victoria would have voted against Labor.
      – And to be honest I am NOT impressed by the electoral gains the Labor party made here in Victoria. And Labor is supposed to win the next national elections ? Give me a break ………..