Macro Afternoon

A weekend without much bad news has translated the poor showing on Wall Street to a buoyant day on stock markets here in Asia today, with just the local Australian markets suffering. The PBOC loosened the Yuan fix substantially while the failing Bitcoin had a big bounce this morning.

The Shanghai Composite is down 0.3% to 2572 points going into the close, struggling to start the week and get quickly back above key support at the 2600 point level.  The Hang Seng Index however is shooting higher, up 1.3% to 26276 points, getting back above the previous support level at 26000 points as the the daily chart is starting to stabilize:

US and Eurostoxx futures are up slightly with the four hourly S&P 500 futures chart still showing a depressed market but sliding along at the previous lows near the 2640 level:

Japanese stocks returned from their long weekend holiday with a small surge higher, the Nikkei 225 closing 0.7% higher to 21812 points.  The USDJPY pair has shot higher well above both trailing ATR resistance and the 113 handle to immediately make a weekly high:

The ASX200 was the worst in the region this time, losing 0.8% to 5671 points, pushed back below the 5700 point support area. The Aussie dollar has blipped higher finally getting back above the high moving average band on the four hourly chart after bouncing off the low 72s:

The economic calendar starts the week with three major speeches by current and former central bank officials, starting with Super Mario in Brussels, then Mark Carney and Alan Greenspan in the UK later tonight.

Comments

  1. http://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/cba-had-suggested-broker-fee-for-service/

    When Orr asked Comyn if he thought trail commissions needed regulatory change, he said “Yes”.
    The emails to Narev also discussed how much revenue the broker would lose on an average loan. The broker revenue on an average loan at the time of the email written was $6627 and would be expected to reduce to $2310

    That is a 65% reduction in broker commission. Combine that with a collapse in loan volumes.

    • Seems a bit low if the brokers are now also having to actually work to get loans across the line, rather than just get a pulse reading and commit a bit of casual fraud.

      • A Mortgage Broker’s primary service is mortgage fraud. If you take that service away then all brokers could easily be replaced with a comparison site charging a tiny fee.

      • Exactly Freddy. The banks deployed brokers to give them a scapegoat. The RC isn’t playing out how they thought i think.

  2. The other day Dr X tried to argue that Australian cities were like NY in that they will be population capped as people move out. My view is we will be more like Brazil as we suck people from our global region in increasing numbers as we create our own mega-cities with nowhere else to go.

    Australia really has no real productive economy, we are a housing ponzi built on selling our agri/mine wealth. NY is very different, being a finance/arts hub for a globally productive economy.

    This is important, because aligning us with places like NY, rather than a more dystopian Brazil is part of the spin of the mass population boosters. It doesn’t look good for Melbourne as it’s path to mega-city continues.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/no-tree-change-melbourne-s-population-to-soar-sucking-growth-out-of-regions-20181122-p50hq2.html

    • Thing is though, take away Wall st and NY is just a big concrete jungle servicing each other in a never ending circlejerk. Pretty much what our elites want for our cities. Everyong sucking the finance sectors c0ck whilst they give you anal ghonarea.

  3. UNITED STATES: Millennials Are Quickly Ditching City Life For Suburbs | Zero Hedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-21/millennials-are-quickly-ditching-city-life-suburbs

    A new report from Ernst & Young LLP., Research Now surveyed 1,202 adults aged 20 to 36 shows that millennials are fleeing big cities for suburban life.

    When determining where to live, many millennials are now following the footsteps of their parents. In total, rent or own, 38% of millennials live in the suburbs, compared to 37% in the city. … read more via hyperlink above …

    • there were a few comments in that article, not quite correct.
      for want of being bothered to find a better reference..

      https://www.ethnews.com/ibm-blockchain-lead-predicts-central-bank-digital-currency-on-stellar-soon

      “In an informal ask-me-anything session on reddit, which began on March 22 and appears to be ongoing, IBM’s head of blockchain solutions for financial services, Jesse Lund, said that the public should “definitely” expect to see a central bank digital currency (CBDC) issued on the Stellar network “soon.”

      Asked how far off he believes such a development is, either on Stellar or on another blockchain, he replied, in all capital letters, “VERY VERY CLOSE.” The tech giant, he said, is “aggressively working with” central banks, as well as other financial institutions, to issue digital assets.”

      • i would treat everything that ibm says, about blockchain or anything else, with a huge grain of salt. Ayers Rock size grain of salt.

        They are desperate for relevance and have a recent track record of innovation that is way, way below what their brand reputation still implies to those outside the industry

  4. interested party

    Well….you can acknowledge climate change or not….I don’t care really. All I know is we hit a high of 43.6C today. Hottest since records have been kept. Being in the tropics….i’m just grateful the humidity has not arrived in force yet. The trees is the yard are coping pretty well, all things considered.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      I’m guessing it’s got something to do with all the ads you’ve clicked on and the organisations you’ve handed your email address out to? Just sayin’.

      Course, could just be your fellow Boganites have stitched you up. Are there more penile implants ads.

      Than usual, I mean?

      ; )

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I’m a shut-in who buys unnecessary golf/trekking/cycling/musical/running/triathlon/motorbike stuff to make me feel better about my shut-in self.

        Everyone has my stupid email. I can’t unsubscribe quick enough.

      • @Mining Bogan

        You do realise that by “unsubscribing” you’re actually confirming that your address is valid, don’t you?

        You’re welcome 😀

    • ChristopherJMEMBER

      Who is getting the concession, AJ? That stretch of rain forest will never be the same if it goes ahead. Dumb asses, eh?

      44 at Cairns airport 10 am yesterday. I could literally see my plants wilting and had to water the sunbird in the nest outside my window

      Yet, not thinking climate change, just some ‘peaky’ weather we’re having…

    • This falls into the same bucket as capital punishment for me.

      It’s OK in theory under ideal circumstances, but in reality the risks are far, far too high for it to be acceptable in practice.

    • Didnt they say a week or two ago the deliqa had gone down? Does my head that people still pay these tards after we saw how utterly inept they were prior to the gfc

    • “0.94 per cent of loans that had converted to principal-and-interest from interest-only were 90 days or more overdue – double the delinquency rate of interest-only loans”

      Still a small number but an encouraging rate of increase…