Immigration to drive 100% of Australia’s future 18m population growth

By Leith van Onselen

Too often, commentators on the population debate understate the role played by immigration in driving Australia’s population growth.

These commentators usually claim that net overseas migration (NOM) accounts for around 60% of Australia’s population increase, whereas “natural increase” (births minus deaths) accounts for around 40%.

While this statement is true when looking at a given year, its is fundamentally wrong when examining population increase over a prolonged period.

This is because “natural increase” includes children of migrants. And if these migrants hadn’t arrived in the first place, they wouldn’t have children and later grandchildren. Hence, Australia’s population base would barely increase without NOM.

The ABS’ latest population projections were released last week. The medium (Panel B) projections from the ABS show the total population and NOM per year out to 2066. Note the huge step-up in both NOM and population growth from the historical average:

Next, Australia’s population projections are shown under medium NOM versus zero NOM, with all other variables (i.e. fertility and mortality) assumed at their medium level:

Under zero NOM, Australia’s population is projected to be 25.1 million people in 2066. This is exactly the same as Australia’s current population and 17.5 million less than with medium NOM.

What this proves is that 100% of Australia’s projected future population growth will come from immigration – both directly as migrants jump off the plane and indirectly as migrants have children and later grandchildren.

This is why the Productivity Commission’s 2016 Migrant Intake Australia Report explicitly said that “Australia’s immigration policy is its de facto population policy”. Because without positive NOM, Australia’s population would not increase.

The data for Melbourne and Sydney is equally telling. Assuming medium fertility, mortality and interstate migrant flows, Melbourne’s population would only increase by around 600,000 by 2066 and would grow by 4.5 million less people than under the ABS’ medium NOM projection:

The situation is even more stark in Sydney, where its population would actually fall by 400,000 under zero NOM (due to continued assumed losses of population interstate), and would grow by 5.1 million less than the median NOM projection:

 

So, in addition to showing that NOM is the sole driver of Australia’s population growth, this data also illustrates that Sydney’s and Melbourne’s infrastructure and housing problems trace back directly to the mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy.

What is most alarming is that over the past decade, Melbourne’s and Sydney’s populations grew by an average of 100,000 and 80,000 people a year respectively. However, over the next 48 years, Melbourne’s and Sydney’s populations are projected to grow by 109, 000 and 94,000 people per annum respectively. Therefore, population growth is projected to be even more extreme in these cities over the next 48 years, as will the associated negative impacts on liveability.

It took Australia more than 200 years to reach 17.5 million people serviced by adequate infrastructure and a functional political economy. Now we are planning to increase the population by the same number in less than 50 years and expect that living standards will keep pace, as well as the political system not break.

This is true national lunacy.

[email protected]

Leith van Onselen

Comments

  1. They deliberately drove up the price of living and real estate, forcing the locals into so much debt slavery they could no longer afford to have kids. They now had an “excuse” to import thousands of people a week.

    The perfect scam.

    • It’s not even the debt slavery, the people from wealthy nations have made their own choice on population. This has been ignored by a few elite that would happily turn our cities and environment to sludge for ideology and/or money.

    • I used to work in Belgium and if we want to see the future it’s worth the trip. What you’ve said is almost word for word what my dad’s saying. Personally, I don’t know any family now where both parents are not working flat out and stressed out to the max by the globalist neolib success story.

      • I last visited Belgium in 2001. It seemed like a great place to live. I think I would prefer to remember it the way it was. The friends I was visiting are now living in another part of Europe.

    • did anyone else hear the ABC radio news story of number of births in Sydney dropping by 1000, year on year. if that doesn’t explain the situation, nothing does. I’m sure i’ve mentioned before I would have had another kid if household formation had been normally expensive during the critical years. I’m sure I speak for many women and men of Generation X.

    • blindjusticeMEMBER

      The choice to have children is definitely at least partly an economic one. I mean who wants to have more than 3 kids when it`ll mean two cars everywhere ? So that`s a limit. Time in university is a limit on the max. Debt is a limit on the max. Insecurity at work plays a role/gig economy/contract work. I find it particularly stupid when people complain about the cost of childcare and blame it instead of how expensive their mortgage is. Once upon a time it could all be done on one wage. What cant parents both work half hours and do the same ?

  2. This is all fairy tale assuming Australian economy will grow at 3% until the end of time
    We don;t have to look far into past to see what is going to happen – lets have a peak into early 90s

    In 1993 population growth in Australia was 1% (170k) of that Net overseas migration was responsible for only 34k (without government cutting migration policy that delivered almost 200k net new immigrants few years earlier),

    If we look into more details majority of that 34k was composed of desperate people (9.5k from NZ where unemployment hit almost 12% and 5.5% from war torn Yugoslavia and Vietnam that opened it’s borders for it’s own people).
    we lost 15k of Australia born people

    So what is going to happen to immigration and population growth when we get hit by much harder recession in a yer or two?

    • This example is the fairy tale, factoring a random event that has no measurable likelihood to suit an argument. As bad as the NY city example that assumes future Australian mega-city residents are going to move out to mythical non-existing productive cities when our actual cities are polluted and ruined.

      • yeah sure, because recessions never happen down under because we have kangaroos
        recession in early 90s was just a random event not an integral part of capitalist economic system

      • Even if this random, unpredictable mythical exodus does occur (its the exodus not the recession that’s a tall tale – disingenuously linked to suit an argument), why then turn our cities to polluted sludge in the short-term?

      • who said we should turn our cities into polluted sludge in the short-term?
        My point is simply that even without government intervention (which will at the best be cosmetic only), population growth issue will be fixed.

        BTW. exodus during the next recession is going to be massive because of debt escape and foreign student exodus

      • Well that’s the bit the mass population shills don’t want to talk about isn’t it – our green cities getting turned into concrete sludge pits, our environment getting smashed to dust, our amenity turning into crowded polluted parks and beaches. You know, the stuff that is happening right now.

    • in re foreign student exodus, it would be helpful to separate university and VET students. I’m particularly interested in the global university foreign student population. Is this cohort liable to exit en mass from Australia and, say, UK, US and NZ? Whereas the Australian VET cohort is driven by the prospects of residency and citizenship, I think that genuine tertiary (university) students and their families recognise the enduring merits of that education and that this cohort would tend to look through a downturn for the long term gain. Why would this cohort be as vulnerable to exodus as the VET sector? Your thoughts please.

      • 692,000 foreign students in Australia.
        NOT AN EXPORT. A huge dead loss.
        And as per your comment – very low level, ‘Negative Human Capital value (they lower Australian skill & productivity), basically an import of third world useless hiding behind an education visa pretext to work & live illegally in blatant visa breach and be as an anchor for chain migration.

        We had 621,000 foreign students in Dec 2017. It’s since grown by 8%.

        It’s not 513,000 international students as a primary TR visa as often reported.
        You also have to include their partners (63,000 with full work rights no entry criteria or English needed, & the foreign students (59,000) on other visa categories.
        Fact check & reference.

        https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/pages/default.aspx

        In Dec 2017 there were 641,000 foreign students AND partners on a TR Student & other visa alibi. Over 140,000 as partners or post grad with full work rights.

        2016 to 2017 was a YtY 13% increase.
        2017 to 2018 it’s now another 8% more, so now an estimated 692,000.

        https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/Research-Snapshots/Documents/Research%20Snapshot_Global%20data%20sources.pdf

        Table 1: Comparison of international students for top western countries.
        USA 1,078,822 2016-17 +3%
        Australia* 624,001 2017 +13%
        Canada 494,525 2017 +20%
        UK 442,375 2016-27 1%
        Germany 358,895 2017 +6%

        So countries with many times our population take in far less as ratio.

        And it gets much worse.
        *The big difference in Australia to all these other countries is the vast majority here are doing very low level or nonsense education available free online or in their home country. Other countries are high level internationally recognised post grad education. We only have a tiny faction doing that.
        In fact we have over 580,000 doing nonsense and very low level VET and ‘assembly line’ pay someone to do assignments education.

        90% concentration in Sydney & Melbourne. Again in the link.

        🔹692,000 foreign students. (2018 +8%). Very long stay and long stay.
        4-9 years is not uncommon.

        N O T AN E X P O R T
        A massive economic & social blackhole.

        They do bring additional GDP of $30 billion in ‘activity’ (each foreign student is estimated at $43.7k each by treasury) but all that money is EARNED HERE.

        In fact just this one group of TR lower the entire Australian GDP per capita by 2.6% overall.

        Fact 1. They only bring in $2.3 billion in declared funds (over half of the $4.1 billion declared funds annually of all TR) but often self declared or heavily frauded in fake sponsors & fake funds.
        The vast majority are third world poor & in debt to an Foreign Agent Procurer.

        Fact 2. They only pay $7.2 billion in fees (excludes the non primary partner or special funding / DFAT etc) source Deloitte Access Economics 2015 study – which is an average of $13,500 per year each for mostly low level course.

        So even their Fee money is EARNED HERE.
        And all the other income for their rent, food, transport, and remittances sent out.
        75% or 519,000 work illegally (UNSW & UTS studies) to repay that agent procurer debt.

        Cash in hand, fake ID – the illegal work organized prior to entry by the foreign criminal syndicates. To send back remittances and stay for as long as it takes or via visa churn until they get a PR.

        All that money is earned here, a lot of it illegally and no tax paid.

        Let’s add up the cost side.

        Deduct say $2.7 billion in tax theft ($43.7k income / $6k x 519k)

        Then deduct an estimated FTE 500,000 jobs stolen or a $9.5 billion Centrelink bill for the now unemployed Australians.

        Then deduct tens of $ $ billions in overall Australian wages loss.

        Then deduct tens of $$ billions of a now destroyed Australian education system as it prostituted itself for a visa alibi.

        Then deduct tens of $ $ billions in housing & homelessness & social economic costs.

        Then deduct tens of $ $ billions of stupid white elephant infrastructure projects (eg Sydney light rail).

        And we get to a $20-30 billion NEGATIVE economic & social impact.

        ➡️ The whole foreign student program is massively financially & socially negative.

        Time for a Productivity Commission Report into the full economic & social destructiveness of this migrant guestworker racket.

      • In the absence of prospects of any real job during and long after the recession there would be very little driving student staying in Australian after they complete the study. With our degrees they can go somewhere else where prospects of getting a job are better

      • What on earth are you talking about X, they are not studying to get an education, they are here to get PR. If you decouple the education system from the visa system the ‘export’ would collapse overnight.

      • We had 621,000 foreign students in Dec 2017. It’s since grown by 8%.

        It’s not 513,000 international students as a primary TR visa as often reported.
        You also have to include their partners (63,000 with full work rights no entry criteria or English needed, & the foreign students (59,000) on other visa categories.
        Fact check & reference.

        https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/research-snapshots/pages/default.aspx

        In Dec 2017 there were 641,000 foreign students AND partners on a TR Student & other visa alibi. Over 140,000 as partners or post grad with full work rights.

        2016 to 2017 was a YtY 13% increase.
        2017 to 2018 it’s now another 8% more, so now an estimated 692,000.

        https://internationaleducation.gov.au/research/Research-Snapshots/Documents/Research%20Snapshot_Global%20data%20sources.pdf

        Table 1: Comparison of international students for top western countries.
        USA 1,078,822 2016-17 +3%
        Australia* 624,001 2017 +13%
        Canada 494,525 2017 +20%
        UK 442,375 2016-27 1%
        Germany 358,895 2017 +6%

        So countries with many times our population take in far less as ratio.

        And it gets much worse.
        *The big difference in Australia to all these other countries is the vast majority here are doing very low level or nonsense education available free online or in their home country. Other countries are high level internationally recognised post grad education. We only have a tiny faction doing that.

        90% concentration in Sydney & Melbourne. Again in the link.

        🔹692,000 foreign students. (2018 +8%). Very long stay and long stay.
        4-9 years is not uncommon.

        N O T AN E X P O R T
        A massive economic & social blackhole.

        They do bring additional GDP of $30 billion in ‘activity’ (each foreign student is estimated at $43.7k each by treasury) but all that money is EARNED HERE.

        In fact just this one group of TR lower the entire Australian GDP per capita by 2.6% overall.

        Fact 1. They only bring in $2.3 billion in declared funds (over half of the $4.1 billion declared funds annually of all TR) but often self declared or heavily frauded in fake sponsors & fake funds.
        The vast majority are third world poor & in debt to an Foreign Agent Procurer.

        Fact 2. They only pay $7.2 billion in fees (excludes the non primary partner or special funding / DFAT etc) source Deloitte Access Economics 2015 study – which is an average of $13,500 per year each for mostly low level course.

        So even their Fee money is EARNED HERE.
        And all the other income for their rent, food, transport, and remittances sent out.
        75% or 519,000 work illegally (UNSW & UTS studies) to repay that agent procurer debt.

        Cash in hand, fake ID – the illegal work organized prior to entry by the foreign criminal syndicates. To send back remittances and stay for as long as it takes or via visa churn until they get a PR.

        And a lot that money is earned here, a lot of it illegally and no tax paid (75% work illegally in visa breach lowering Australian wages. Creating unemployed. Creating massive infrastructure & housing impacts. Destroying Australian education standards.

  3. Quebec childcare costs less then $10 a day. There is your population policy – help people raise kids. But our gov doesn’t want to spend money to raise kids as cheaper to import adults. And there are more pressing issues like knocking down good stadiums and rebuilding them.

  4. What’s most interesting is how this will change Australia’s identity to be more like our neighbouring countries, we will be more politically aligned.