The great Australian recession cometh

JPM economist Sally Auld is a class act:

Recession-free Australia will find it hard to “duck and weave” the next global slowdown, says JPMorgan economist.

Check back at 1:30 p.m. Sydney time for further panels: https://t.co/QlD3qlyS4s pic.twitter.com/1eECHhIzx5

— Bloomberg Australia (@BloombergAU) November 1, 2018

Though I still think it will take an external shock to get us to our third recession in 28 years, the next one will be a doozy:

-40% real house price crash;
-50% on ASX;
RBA out of ammo;
constrained fiscal support plus sovereign downgrades;
crashing immigration;
constrained Chinese and worldwide stimulus support;
no growth drivers until the currency falls FAR lower.

No more Strayan exceptionalism.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.