Goodbye Liberal Party

Let’s lead off with the disastrous Newspoll:

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the federal Coalition’s primary vote falling for the third poll in a row to a near-record low of 34 per cent, as senior ministers today ­defended claims that Victorian voters at the state poll had taken out their anger on Canberra.

The Coalition now trails Labor on a two-party-preferred split of 45-55 for the second consecutive poll as it heads into the final two weeks of parliament and potentially the last before the next federal election if an early poll is called for March.

That pretty much speaks for itself. The Coalition leadership change has destroyed the party in the cities and failed completely to repair the split in the conservative base caused by One Nation.

By assassinating Do-nothing Malcolm only to replace him with another Sydney cockroach, the party took the worst possible option. It killed its progressive vote while entrenching the breakaway QLD movement. So stupid.

And now for Victoria where the pet shop gallahs are screaming a very simple truth, via the AFR:

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and his deputy Josh Frydenberg will hold crisis talks with Victorian federal MPs on Monday, after the rout of the Liberal Party in Saturday’s state election raised fears that up to six federal Coalition seats in and around Melbourne could be lost.

With the state Labor government of Daniel Andrews forecast to win 55 of the state’s 88 lower house seats following Saturday’s landslide, moderates, shocked at the scale of the swing towards Labor in safe inner-Melbourne seats, blamed the dumping of Malcolm Turnbull for contributing to the result.

They demanded the Morrison government change tack and dial back its hard-right approach to issues such as climate change.

The entire MSM agrees, literally dozens of articles, and I see no reason to doubt it. It’s obvious.

A couple of other results are of interest. The Greens are also on the nose, via The Guardian:

The Victorian Greens went backwards in Saturday’s state election, losing votes in both houses and on track to lose a majority of their seats.

After a campaign marred by fierce conflict between Labor and the Greens, and a number of scandals involving Greens candidates, the party suffered a swing of 1.7% in the legislative assembly and a similar swing in the legislative council. This looks likely to translate into a loss of up to two seats in the lower house and close to a wipe-out in the upper house.

The Greens currently hold three lower-house seats. They won Melbourne and Prahran in 2014, and won Northcote at a 2017 byelection. They look likely to win one or two of these seats, and potentially win a third seat off Labor.

This is as severe an indictment as the Libs. How can The Greens lose seats at such an election? How have they gone backwards during what is reaching revolutionary levels of disenchantment with the major parties? Or am I racist for asking?

NSW Liberals are openly seceding from federal colleagues, also at The Guardian:

The New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has suggested the prime minister, Scott Morrison, will be surplus to campaign requirements when the state goes to the polls in March next year, saying her government will stand “on its own two feet”.

After the Liberal party’s drubbing in Victoria on Saturday, Berejiklian was asked by reporters whether Morrison would be called on during the NSW election campaign.

The premier replied: “I have never relied on anybody outside NSW and I don’t intend to start now.” Her government would stand “on its own two feet”, she said.

The groping of Luke Foley is a heavenly intervention for Berejiklian  who has one foot in the grave as well.

Tim Colebatch makes a welcome return (clearly the new Domainfax stable of mediocre Seinfeldian snowflakes is not up to it) to note the rise of minor parties in the senate:

But the best-known crossbench MP will not be back. Fiona Patten, elected for the Sex Party with Mr Druery’s support in 2014, has fallen out with him since, and her decision to change the party’s name to the Reason Party saw its vote collapse on Saturday.

The new Transport Matters party, founded by hire car owner Rod Barton, would be the biggest winner. With just 0.6 per cent of the vote, it would win two seats in the council…

The Aussie Battler party would win the final seat in Eastern Victoria, where it won just 1.4 per cent of the vote. The lucky beneficiary would be serial upper house candidate Vern Hughes.

The Liberal Democrats stand to win a seat in Northern Victoria. Both seats would be taken from the Shooters party, which would be evicted from Parliament despite doubling its vote to 3.2 per cent.

In Western Victoria, the Animal Justice party stands to win the final seat, while in Southern Metropolitan – unless the Green vote picks up sharply – it would be the Sustainable Australia Party funded by anti-immigration campaigner Dick Smith.

Great to see SAP get up. It is not funded by Dick Smith. And no, it is not “anti-immigration”, nor is Dick Smith.

My simple conclusion is that if the anger from the botched Turnbull coup has not been quenched by the two state election results then it is not going to be processed by the community until it slaughters the Liberals federally and there is nothing that can be done to prevent it.

Longer term the implications are even more dire. If the party swings progressive then it dies the One Nation death. If it swings conservative then it dies in the cities. There is no talent to bring the two together.

The Liberal Party of Australia, and the Coalition, may well be dead and buried.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. Liberals getting annohilated would be good. It would make the worst of the Costello legacies that much easier to kill and bury.

    On the other hand, the annihilation might not transpire. Because as soon as labor get in and start back-pedalling and failing to deliver everything that everyone thought they voted for , the public will begin to realise that they’re exactly the same and the electorates anger will turn against them. So the lurching back to the Libs might begin before they’ve fallen apart.

      • I’m wagering that we’ll see a good terror scare soon. Then the PM and Dutton will stand in front of lots of flags and policemen in masks and tell us how they have rescued us.

        Nothing like a good scare to push the vote back to the LNP.

      • There was a good terror scare two weeks out from the Vic election – if it lifted the Libs, I’d hate to see how they’d look had it not occurred.

      • Yes. They continue to ignore the electorate instead continue with self referential excuses..The electorate does not want them full stop. They will not look at that. Who cares about the naughtiness of getting rid of Turnbull the toad.
        A voter might care about foreign entanglements or immigration and lack of infrastructure and exceeding sustainable population or lack of preparedness for the falling solar radiation, the consequent drought and long term dryness, loss of wheat crop, cold and shorter brewing period. Ask farmers.

    • The political narrative has been craftily framed around the confusing left and right powers….the fact that neo-liberalism has it roots deeply embedded in the Oxford School of Great Britain and the British leadership of the Tory’s with Theresa May refusing to let go, has allowed a heavy hand to push this permanently into the Australian governance spectrum in our Universities aka Melbourne Business School, our Australian Public Service and of course within our political leadership starting with Bob Hawke and resulting some 35 year later in an agonizing death at the hands of Malcolm Turnbull and the Tony Abott mutiny members.

      We need our new leadership to publicly announce neo-liberalism is DEAD AND BURIED, they must embrace a new way to bring inclusiveness, tolerance and the Australian fair go for all back to the roots of a co-ordinated policy platform that is simply unable to be achieved with Liberal Party ideology…….ScoMo Scott Morrison is simply unable to reconcile those forces that are the brand of the Liberal Party of Australia that has to reconsider everything it stands for as it has failed the Australian people and everyone whom we lend assistance.

      Please let the heanous, socially inept and economically irrational platform of neo-liberalism drift away and be confined to the dustbin of history in Australia, as with Theresa May in Great Britain. Only with true leadership will we see meaningful change for the better, a leader who is a master of strategy (not GAMING) and able to bring people together to make a neighbor value his brethren (not force them apart).

      • Yep, Australia needs a Great Orator, someone that can illuminate the dark space that treachery has thrived for the past 50 years.

      • No Patrick,
        Hilter was a great orator, what we need is someone who is honest and can articulate what needs to be done and point out it is not possible for the outcome to be painless!

      • Yes Dennis, I was thinking of Adolf Hitler as the Great Orator, however I doubt we’ll ever see someone with his influence, persuasion and charisma any time soon, if ever, again.
        Now please settle down, and keep your mind open. Think GREAT ORATOR.

        “I know that men are won over less by the written than by the spoken word, that every great movement on this earth owes its growth to great orators and not to great writers,” Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf, 1925.

    • That’s true Peachy. Every election wipeout on either side sees predictions of the end of that party appear. Problem is the new government f#cks it up in short order and within two electoral cycles (or one, if you’re Campbell Newman) the “doomed” previous losers are back in power again.

    • Are you forecasting or commenting on history? Don’t ruin my dreams by saying labor won’t do everything they say they will!

  2. The Greens are redundant in Victoria, where there is a socially progressive party in power whose popularity suggests is seen as being effective. Why would a progressive voter bother with a party that can’t do anything over one that can? The Greens in Victoria need Andrews to turn into Rudd/ Gilllard, which seems unlikely in the short term.
    Andrews’ rental reforms are exactly the sort of thing Greens voters like that the Greens talk about but can’t deliver.

    • Correct. All Green voters, like myself, should vote Labor to make sure we unseat these Liberal idiots. Baby steps. We’ll finesse the green stuff once the RWNJs are put out to pasture.

    • By attaching environmental policy to far left nuttiness the Greens are actually damaging environmental progress. They should cede this space to a legitimate environmental party.

      • Which should be the ‘Sustainable *Population* Party’.

        What’s with political parties and changing their names to be less appealing? Sex Party did it too.

      • The greens don’t care about the environment anymore. They started on that and think loyals still remember, just self serving exploiters. In favour of big Australia and most seem not to have ever been out of a cupboard in in the city in their lives. Labour unfortunately sides with logging unions so that’s done. That is indiicative of all their thinking, instead it would be cheaper to pay the loggers off and make tourist usage of regional old growth forests. We plain need the trees and more planting everywhere to ameliorate the climate and hold our soils on and fewer people, stop the migrants until we drop population and can fit another in. Like parking stations, aust does have a carrying capacity and we really can’t go out and cull in bad times when we are overstocked.

  3. And no one is more responsible for this situation than Scummo Scott Morrison. As immigration minister, treasurer, and prime minister he is responsible for a lot of the policies that are why the Libs are being rejected by the community. Population ponzi, corporate tax cuts, arguing against the banking RC, rolling Malcolm (yes Scott, we know it was engineered by you)… the list goes on.

    A cancer on Australia has Scott Morrison been.

  4. Think you’re overstating it a bit. Vic Libs were embarrassingly bad and never really had a hope under Guy. That being said it’s not a bad election for them to lose as Andrews is walking head on into a housing crash. There’s also the rorts for votes investigation still ongoing so if it has any teeth then we could see some Labor MP’s tossed out yet.

    Victoria gave 4 seats to useless Hinch and 2 to angry taxi drivers. What an absolute banana republic the state has become.

    • Yeah, this is as good as it is going to get for Daniel Andrews. The next 4 years are not going to be fun.

    • Spot on, the last five years has seen a surge in stamp duty receipts (price driven), but with stamp duty collapsing, budget will be splashing red ink. That being said both sides had billions in promises and both have committed to some projects that have low return on cost (Westgate tunnel). Some of the projects will be funded by sold assets (land registry and Snowy Hydro).
      However, as this site has pointed out many times, a lot of the big projects cost more than the benefits gained and with revenues collapsing, it will really put the state’s finances under pressure.
      The election really didn’t cover much of the big issue facing the state which is the population surge and the environmental impacts. It was basically Labor saying we will build stuff for the surging population and the Libs saying we’ll send ’em to the regions.

    • Mark HeydonMEMBER

      “Vic Libs were embarrassingly bad and never really had a hope under Guy”
      You think Federal Libs and Scummo are any better?
      I don’t.

      • No, all I’m stating is that the Vic Libs were a far deal worse than their Fed counterparts and that’s an incredibly low bar to begin with.

        The Fed libs still have the immigration hail Mary play up their sleeve, but whether or not they will bother and prefer to hand Fed Labor a poisoned chalice and housing crash remains to be seen.

      • This is where it gets interesting……… again. Sure the Libs are severely lacking (being nice here) in pretty much any way you cut it and people are driving the verbal barbs home and deservedly so. But when the dust settles and Labor struts the halls, I worry that suddenly we have a party in power that, in reality, is not that much better. I suppose we are in a Groundhog Day scenario where the crappiest party out of a crappy bunch gets kicked out and the cycle just repeats. Australian leadership is still at an all time low……………… We truly need a real crisis to flush the dross away on all sides and get some real action, direction and strategy going.

    • I read the Hinch party’s showing as rusted on Liberal voters who were embarrassed by the Libs trying to find a non Greens/ ALP spot to park their vote.

  5. chadszinowMEMBER

    Dick Smith would also make the point he’s not anti-immigration. He’s pro-immigration at sustainable levels.

  6. Federal leadership situation a minor contributor being over blamed, Guy offered no great differentiation from Dan’s red team who have been visibly improving day to day transport across Melb especially the South East. Add in the $1b pissed up the wall by the Libs on needlessly signing EastWest link contract before they were turfed out last time, and ‘lobster with a mobster’ and the over enthusiastic tower approvals by Guy as planning minister and I can’t see why anyone other than a religious Christian nut job would have considered a vote for blue. The reds whilst failing a little in some regards just hadn’t done anything disastrously badly enough to warrant a protest vote. If schools and hospitals lag population growth much longer they might cop backlash but not yet.

      • Ummm – absolutely 100% false.

        That is just your predilection for satiating your cognitive bias (see the unending stream of absurd anti-labour posts over the last few weeks).

        People in safe seats of Melbourne absolutely LOATHE Mathew Guy – they despise him with all their might. Why ? Because they hate corruption and sleaze more than anything. And that is all Mathew guy is.

        Whats more it was above all a vote for Labour.

        Dan Andrews has delivered better outcomes and has been a better premiere than anyone in our history – the most conservative seats in Victoria went to Labour – why not a protest vote ? Why note independant ? Why not Green ?

        Because Daniel has been outstanding – despite you ultra conservative far right wing ranting and raving – most people have a considered and balanced view and can see fantastic work when its so obvious its completely beyond denial.

        Then again – some also have a balanced opinion of themselves and are not a full blown extreme example of Dunning Kruger Effect.

      • People in the liberal heartland don’t like Morrison.
        But they didn’t like Guy either
        – association with crime figures ( several times) .
        -aggressive anti crime policy was seen as hysterical and divisive.
        -insisting the first action would be to close the injecting room.
        Most people don’t see this as Victoria’s most important problem.
        Most people l know( in liberal heartland) have someone in their family or close social circle with a drug problem,and they are desperate for these people to survive and get their lives back on track.
        Guy and the Liberals in Victoria ran an appalling campaign. The federal Liberals are the cream and icing of a very rotten cake.

      • People don’t like Morrison, but you are massively underestimating how much people dislike Matthew Guy and one of the worst campaigns in living memory.

      • HadronCollisionMEMBER

        @Mark Antony

        ultra conservative far right wing ranting and raving

        Ummm, MB can hardly be called ultra conservative
        And there’s little ranting and raving

        Some hypocrisy, sure, some total nonsense and irrelevancy, but you saying MB rants and raves is rather mirthful.

      • “Dan Andrews has delivered better outcomes and has been a better premiere than anyone in our history”

        What has he done ? ……… Not being from Australia’s premier immigration, construction and “first to sign an MOU with China” State

      • The reason why the Libs ran a crime and order campaign is a) it worked in 2010 and b) they have nothing to offer. Guy is useless and the parliamentary wing is like something out of Deliverance – inbred and disdain “normal people” who are seen as outsiders.

      • The reason why the Libs ran a crime and order campaign is a) it worked in 2010

        Did it work in 2010, or did Gillard/ Rudd campaigning hard on the Libs side, not to mention the Myki and desal plant boondoggles swing it for them?

      • Trout à la Crème

        Mark Antony if Victorians hate corruption why did they vote in a candidate that sold out Victoria and Australia to a corrupt national socialist CCP party? Dan Andrews has delivered better outcomes and has been a better premiere (sic) than anyone in our history for the CCP and the diaspora in those ‘conservative’ seats who are reached by propaganda from the corrupt national socialist CCP.
        …but …. but …. whataboutism …

    • Dutton appearing on Sydney radio to rave about gangs made it appear Guys only policy was a Queensland brain fart. Can’t possibly have helped.

      • A Queenslander appeared on NSW radio to scaremonger about a gang that doesn’t actually exist in Victoria in order to support a person who openly dines with the head of organised crime groups.

    • HadronCollisionMEMBER

      I said something similar a couple of weeks back and a commenter here was not at all well disposed to my thoughts.

      As my dad says…..(pause for effect) WRONGGGGGG!

  7. Labeling Dick Smith as an ‘anti’ immigration campaigner is as offensive as it is wrong.

    Tim needs to be straightened out on this

    • Why bother reporting accurately when you can smear?

      Bit like how everyone who isn’t for the neoliberal consensus is in fact “alt-right”, a fabricated concept that didn’t exist before 2016.

    • HadronCollisionMEMBER

      but but but it’s a welcome return for tim colebatch

      SAP SRSLY need to get some PR people onto their branding and messaging

      • Agree. Very much lacking in cut through, I voted for them in the lower house, and preferenced them earlyish in the upper house.

        Cast as anti-immigration by their detractors and branding wise looking like a random NIMBY group with the ‘stop over-development’ stuff.

      • Are you offering to pony up the $$$ for this?
        Or maybe big business will come along with a political donation?

  8. As usual the division of the Labral duopoly that wins proudly declares they are up to the job, and the division that loses claim specific circumstances etc. But we can expect more of the same:

    Etc… although there was a 5% or so swing against the duopoly.

  9. I suspect this will mean that the Federal Coalition Government will move away from reducing immigration as one of its policies. It will probably also embolden Federal Labor to pursue the same course as it is pursuing now.

    • That looks very likely.

      This will be interpreted as a big green light for Big Australia provided you look like you are doing something.

      At least until Victoria reaches its borrowing limits.

      Our states are not monetary sovreigns so MMT Is not even an option.

      • Well there are a few notable asset sales to pay for this:
        Port of Melbourne lease
        Land registry
        Snowy Hydro to the federal government

        I have always wondered what was left to sell, but apparently there are a few items left in the cupboard.

      • jollyrodger – they’ve already been sold!!! What we need is the list that is going to be sold to foreigners to pay for his new promises.

      • Agree. We are heavily invested in the housing ponzi, the narative suits our interests. Not the time to be selling housing cheap.

    • Seems to mean stuff all on that front – big development Guy is at least as identified with growth for growths sake as Andrews and didn’t attempt to prosecute a case for any sort of people influx slowdown so cuts to temporary migration seems ScoMos beat chance of a popular policy that distinguishes him from Labour,

      • Cutting immigration will not stop the current overcrowding of public resources I.e. Trains, roads schools ,hospitals.
        The migrants are here and are not going away.
        Shorten the other day pointed to 1.2 million visitors on working visas, these if cut would reduce the population in a fairly short (sic) time.This would offer jobs for Australians and tie in with Shortens pledge to upgrade TAFE and training for young Aussies
        Labor may yet meet our needs .

  10. Yep you and the media have got this election result back to front. It has nothing to do with progressive vs conservative, as the declining green vote shows. The election was decided on pro people vs pro business policies. Labor is doing a good job building desperately needed infrastructure, despite Andrews being on the nose, while libs were going to give a TV subsidy to Harvey Norman and sell of the sewerage works with a leader who was just as bad if not worse than Andrews.
    No Contest!

    • Fair point. Does it also show the more infrastructure makes more people ok – ie the big Australia narative – is resonating with Victorians?

      • I think the level crossing removals have had a surprising impact. It’s not just a mega project freeway, it’s distributed local impact across suburban Melbourne. Enough people have seen short-term impact during construction give way to longstanding headaches being removed.

        Compared to the Ballieu / Napthine years where everything went to a committee and nothing of net social benefit happened.

      • eddit0r: Spot on, they have been popular because they do what good decisions are meant to do — improve things for many people.

    • You are right. Left/right is meaningless in actual electoral terms. It is pro people vs pro business as business has degenerated into a predatory/parasitic form which sucks the blood out of the community.

    • “Despite Andrews being on the nose” could well be recast as Herald Sun editorial opinion no-longer a deciding electoral factor in Victoria.

  11. I think you’re all over analyzing the situation.
    It really very simple Aussies don’t like smug bastards.
    Scomo defines smug making him about as popular as a pork chop at a bar mitzvah.
    There’s really nothing more to it.

  12. I think the nutters in the Fed libs did impact the Vic election regardless of the things they dislike about Dan. They need to be purged to get sensible energy policy for one. If Bill does stupid sh1t in his first term he’ll go as well. Personally, I voted for SAP, but the libs were next to the greens at the bottom. I am worried though about the opaque nature of Dan …China silk road call for one, immigration as well. I’ve switched off, but I can’t see things, in Vic, getting any better.

    • The economic model Victoria has is likely to deliver unemployment even higher than Tassies. This will also unravel quickly as the budget gets trashed by stamp duty and other revenue stream.

  13. BoomToBustMEMBER

    I voted Labour this election and last, however previously I have been a long standing Liberal supporter (state). Despite the fact I am no fan of Shorten I will probably vote Labour federally as well or who ever gives my vote the best chance or the elected party dealing with negative gearing, immigration etc. Basically bring back support for the middle class, tax the wealthy corp’s.

  14. The political system is broken and been for quite some time, it’s like ground hog day, labour wins then liberals win, repeat ad nauseam. We need a revolution to change the status quo, hand the power back to the people, regular referendums, let the people decide we can’t do any worse then the politicians! Do we continue for ever and a day operating on the Westminster system? The politicians like things just how they are, they don’t want change, they don’t give a shit about the people. They believe it is their job to make endless new laws and spend tax payers money, very poorly I might ad. Nothing will change unless enough of the people want change, so until then get back to work you lazy taxation slave.

    • Both labor and liberal have collapsing primary votes which are masked to a degree by the two party preferred outcome. It won’t be long before the two party system breaks down.

      • Unless you reform the fundamentals of how the system operates, you’ll just see a different party move into their place for more of the same.

      • But that is because they refused to represent the will of those who voted for them nor the electorate generally.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      There is another step our society needs to go through before a “Revolution” can or will happen, that step is pushing the limits of the system that exists,… if the system then fails to yeild to popular demands, then you can have your Revolution.

      Its hard to argue that limits are being pushed when the participation rate in the political process is so low.
      The ALP is the largest political party, by membership, in the country and yet has only 53,000 members!
      What is the membership of all the Political parties combined?
      I’d be supprised if it was over 130 thousand people, in a country of 25 million!.


      • This comment sounds a lot like making the argument that if we had 50 million voters instead of 25 million then we’d get a better result out of the elections, given the parties seem to operate as a smaller version of our parliamentary election process.

      • ALP bosses, do they want more members? Look at the British Labour Party and its membership able to elect the leader? ALP boss types are aghast at what happened there. Look up Michael Danbys article in The Spectator on Corbyn. More members means more pesky calls for greater party democracy and a shift to the left. Better to have fewer members and rely on big donors and unions. The British Labour Partys coffers at the 2017 election were the best in years due to a tidal wave of donations from the large increase in member numbers Corbyn achieved. But the trade off is a greater say for members in policy and the leadership. Do the ALP want that here? Cant recall the last time I heard discussion about democracy in the ALP

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        My intended point is to say, that turning up at your local public school every so many years to vote is not good enough.
        Its not enough if you want to effect reform or policy change,…nor does it ensure enough oversight to censure and limit the corrupt behavior of elected representatives and party officials.
        Its the small percentage of our population that directly participates in the political/policy making process that has allowed our Democracy to become so corrupt and unresponsive to the public will.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        I bring up the Lack of sincere and active membership recruiting all the time at Branch, SEC and FEC meetings.
        I have No doubt Im considered quite an anoyance.

      • There’d be 10 AFL clubs with bigger membership than the ALP. Says something positive about Australia still.

      • I was a member, I worked hard for a goo candidate. The organizer is now a front bencher but has never really had a normal job just student to Polly.

        Respect needs to be earned, this lesson remains unlearned

  15. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Lucy Turnbull on ABC radio 702 this morning going on about some Macquarie st walking path/ area up grade,… blah blah blah.
    Her and Paul keating working together on Macquarie St giggle giggle blah blah blah
    New York walkng paths that are Syd to Parra long blah blah blah.
    Taking callers talking about dificulty of city street parking on Macquarie st Blah blah blah.
    New York street signs, Blah Blah Blah
    Went on for ages,…then “How are you enjoying having Mal back at home,…giggles then call over.
    Pathetically weak, soft and lame interview.

  16. So, Josh is saying Vic results got nothing to do with Fed politics but Scummo is calling crisis talks.

  17. These things are clearly cyclical. Wait till the ALP is in power where it counts (in Canberra), and continue with ‘big Australia’ policies, as our two major cities become increasingly congested. Won’t take long for people to hate the ALP as much as they hate the Libs currently. After all, that’s what caused Abbott to win in a landslide.

  18. matthew hoodMEMBER

    Nats will be finished off before the Libs, the IND have the blue print….hopefully in a few elections they can have the city state of Melbourne surrounded.

  19. Guy was clearly the wrong choice. He had been in the Lower House from 2014 only, very inexperienced. His punchy combative style didn’t really suit Victorian voters, and does it suit state politics in general? I met Michael O’Brien on the campaign trail. He would have been a far better leader and I thought so at the time Guy was elected. O’Brien had been State Treasurer for a few years prior to the 2014 leadership election and presented a far more composed and concise alternative to Guy. Barrister and senior adviser to Peter Costello which he did for five years before Parliament. But the factions did not allow that to happen. They went for Mr Fireworks to “take it up” to the Govt. That blew up but that said no state leader of a Victorian Liberal Party could have avoided the negative effects the neo-conservative faction has had on the Federal Government and its image in Victoria. The more moderate image O’Brien presents certainly would have helped however

    • O’Brien is somewhat tainted from the East-West link contract. But you could have thrown darts on a dart board and come up with a better leader than Guy.

  20. I remember in the 90s making jokes about Japan”a rotating Prime Ministers, as how someone with only 8% approval rating can end up being PM. Now we are seeing the same thing in Australia.

    Having an unpopular candidate leading the party is the inevitable outcome when ‘faceless man’ becomes too powerful in a political party. A strong candidate will create policies, while a weak candidate must listen to the puppet master. For the faceless man, not losing control is more important than winning an election.

    The ALP is only winning because the LNP is self imploding.

    • It’s a nice theory but the strong candidate has zero ability to do anything independently of the party, requiring their support to not join the revolving door of politicians. See MT for the example of what happens.

  21. As a former member of the Liberal Party the result did not come as a surprise.
    Since Kennett was turfed the party has been in a downwards spiral. The blip of an accidental victory with Baillieu by the absolute thinnest of margins has wallpapered over Grand Canyon-sized cracks the party refuses to acknowledge. It is still a party in denial.
    It continues to put up circle-jerked political careerist hacks and has not shown any will to instill fresh blood with real-world experience. The membership generally is either retirees, young Lib wankerites, or opportunistic spivs like Matthew Guy. There are very few “normal” people who actually run businesses or have successful careers. Why would you throw away such a lifestyle to join the Victorian Liberal Party? It is in ruins and cannot see it.
    The policy of the Liberal Party is to see out election loss after election loss until it gets lucky.

    • There are very few “normal” people who actually run businesses or have successful careers. Why would you throw away such a lifestyle to join Politics?
      Fixed it for ya.

  22. Anyone else watching ABC Vic election results page?

    Allegedly, counting continues, yet percentage counted hasn’t budged.

    I am not sure the Greens have Prahran, though this depends entirely on minor party preferences – opaque to me.

  23. It’s not Turnbull’s ousting that’s the issue, it’s the Conservatives inability to clearly explain why he was booted and what their alternate policy setting would offer Australians. In stead we got a PM who spurts all kinds of sh1t, leaving us unable to distinguish between policy and brain farts. Has anyone noticed that when Dutton or Abbott government gob off around Newspol time, the LNP vote falls? Dutton’s antics over the past two weeks were aimed squarely at getting a lift in the polls. How’d that work for ya dickhead?

    The Liberals in opposition will implode and fracture into faction based minor parties. The neocon agent provocateurs will never rest until the Liberal Party is cast into their mould even at the expense of political unity. This means Labor will become the dominant party and this is good for democracy.

  24. Victoria a dry run for the Federal election.

    ‘The Labor Eco Globalist Socialist Infrastructure for Migrants & Make Work Alliance’
    The last bubble blown in a massive make work debt binge’? – as Australia tips slowly into recession and a migrant congested third world country.

    All Australian taxpayer funded, debt from half a trillion to a trillion, all migrants welcome, come on in, come on in, make work & welfare for all.

    • The first day the word ‘recession’ is used in an MSM headline, virtually all the migrants who arrived in the last ten years – not to mention plenty who were born here – will bugger off in search of a better payday. It just took the vague threat of a slight downturn in 2010 for a mass exodus of Indians from Melbourne.

  25. rob barrattMEMBER

    It’s all going to be sooooooo smooth from now on. The CFMEU will tell the Bill puppet what the ventriloquist wants to say.

    Mitsubishi, Holden, Toyota. Never heard of them.
    BYEEEEE …..
    Just a humble word from the unconvinced – life is COMPETITIVE You buy it from Kmart & Target. Whoever gets to manufacture it is going to be the new economic power. Penalty rates? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA ……..