See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
The AUD is still firmly bid this morning:
The RBA-inspired mis-pricing of Aussie bonds rolls on:
But XJO has sunk to what will be a new correction low if sustained into the close:
Big Iron is soft:
Big Gas hammered:
Big Gold is firm:
Big Banks are still free falling:
Big Retail is on the verge of joining them:
As Big Realty keeps falling:
The RBA may see a property bust with no consequences but, increasingly, equities don’t.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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Macro Afternoon
A solid up day here in Asia despite the lack
Australian dollar flies as stocks price to infinity
It's all fun and games into the news void today
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Despite the rising tensions with China and
So shares, house prices and business conditions collapsing and AUD rockets. Wow, now that’s a contrarian trade!
Repatriation of offshore asset sales to meet local debts?
No incoming from uk europe to take advantage of future interest rate rises,
No its a USD trade. Market has been pricing relative weakness in AU for some time. Now US is also starting to show a few warning signs that it may not be as strong as was thought, Still looks a corrective move to me though for now.
Yep.
It’s not a popular way to think of things but sometimes there simply isn’t a fundamental reason for the move. Currencies tend to be quite technical. If they become oversold they inevitable enjoy a bounce (for a period) and if overbought they will sell off. The key is the underlying trend.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/roseville-residents-to-have-development-built-around-them-despite-wanting-to-sell-784668/
Interesting quote in the article
“why would I need to make an offer, it’s not communist China,” Mayrin Group director William Wu ”
XJO was also at this price in 2015. 4 years of sideways movement. Not to mention back around 2007-2008 as well, so more than a lost decade really.
One of my mates quietly told me his super had declined $15000 in two days recently. His overall losses over the last two months or so must be something like $80000 or more. He’s my age and his wife is urging him to try for a 4 day week as he heads closer to retirement. Looks like retirement will be delayed a bit, if this keeps up.
All those poor bastards with their super in the ridiculous “balanced” options with 60% or more exposure to equities must be getting beaten like rented mules.
Tell you r mate
Skippy says its only money and it has no value.
Tell him also WW says
he aint seen nothing yet
I wouldn’t refer anybody to skippy. I can never understand anything he says.
Probably the more relevant chart to super balances is the accumulation index which takes account of dividends reinvested. Wouldn’t want to be in some sort of high growth/low income option though.
” … the ridiculous “balanced” options with 60% or more exposure to equities …”
Abso-bloody-lutely! And it’s especially ridiculous if you’re within 10 years of hoping to retire.
TT
the retirement age will be 75 in maybe 1.5 electoral cycles.
plenty of punters who have spent all their life in an office will easily struggle on till then.
WW – True, but it doesn’t change the fact that the default “balanced” option is absolutely inappropriate for the vast majority of us, especially people looking to retire in the next 10 years.
Yup, all those inflated management fees so some over-rated dweeb can invest the money according to a faulty investment formula. Just one of a multitude of financial tragedies that will ooze to the surface in the coming years.
Its all good
you guys are all short the banks
aren’t you.
Have to be crazy not to lol
Consider it a hedge against falling house prices, falling super balance, and losing your job if the economy tanks.