Coalition’s launches another dud negative gearing scare campaign

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By Leith van Onselen

The Coalition’s analysis of income and tax data for 2015-16 shows that 1.3 million Australians owned a negatively-geared investment property during that financial year. Around 640,000 people lived in seats held by the Coalition, whereas 570,000 were in seats held by Labor. The results have prompted Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to claim that Labor’s negative gearing policy will not only hit their own supporters, but all Australians who own a home:

“No real estate market will be harder hit by Labor’s ill-conceived property tax than the New South Wales market,” Frydenberg says.

“Labor’s property tax will not only punish the 350,000 people in New South Wales and the 1.3 million Australians who negative gear, but every Australian with equity in their home”…

“We are not talking about rich property barons here, we are talking about ordinary people who are saving for their retirement and are building a nest egg outside of their super,” said chief executive of the Property Council of Australia Ken Morrison.

Labor has little to fear from persisting with its negative gearing and CGT policy. Labor did, after all, perform much better than expected last election with this policy, so there is nothing to suggest that it would suddenly turn politically poisonous in the upcoming election, especially given the unpopularity of the Morrison Government.

Moreover, detailed opinion polling, albeit conducted in June 2016, showed that the overwhelming majority of Labor voters either supported scrapping negative gearing altogether (42%) or restricting negative gearing to newly constructed homes only (21%):

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The Coalition and the property lobby are getting desperate, but as the polling suggests, their scare mongering is falling on deaf ears.

Labor is cruising towards an easy electoral victory and its negative gearing and CGT policy is going to be implemented. Get used to it.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.