China PMIs weaken further

From China’s NBS:

In November 2018 , the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index ( PMI ) was 50.0% , a slight drop of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , at a critical point.

In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.6% , which is 1.0 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and above the critical point; the medium-sized enterprise PMI is 49.1% , up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month , and the small enterprise PMI is 49.2% , compared with last month. The decline was 0.6 percentage points, and the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was below the critical point.

From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI , the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the raw material inventory index and the employee index are below the critical point.

Table China’s manufacturing PMI and composition index (seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %
  PMI  
produce new order Raw material

in stock

Practitioner Supplier delivery time
2017 Nian 11 Yue 51.8 54.3 53.6 48.4 48.8 49.5
2017 Nian 12 Yue 51.6 54.0 53.4 48.0 48.5 49.3
2018 Nian 1 Yue 51.3 53.5 52.6 48.8 48.3 49.2
2018 Nian 2 Yue 50.3 50.7 51.0 49.3 48.1 48.4
2018 Nian 3 Yue 51.5 53.1 53.3 49.6 49.1 50.1
2018 Nian 4 Yue 51.4 53.1 52.9 49.5 49.0 50.2
2018 Nian 5 Yue 51.9 54.1 53.8 49.6 49.1 50.1
2018 Nian 6 Yue 51.5 53.6 53.2 48.8 49.0 50.2
2018 Nian 7 Yue 51.2 53.0 52.3 48.9 49.2 50.0
2018 Nian 8 Yue 51.3 53.3 52.2 48.7 49.4 49.6
2018 Nian 9 Yue 50.8 53.0 52.0 47.8 48.3 49.7
2018 Nian 10 Yue 50.2 52.0 50.8 47.2 48.1 49.5
2018 Nian 11 Yue 50.0 51.9 50.4 47.4 48.3 50.3

Table Other relevant indicators of China’s manufacturing PMI (seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %
  New export

Order

import Purchase quantity Main raw material purchase price Factory

price

Finished product

in stock

In hand

Order

Production and operation activities are expected
2017 Nian 11 Yue 50.8 51.0 53.5 59.8 53.8 46.1 46.6 57.9
2017 Nian 12 Yue 51.9 51.2 53.6 62.2 54.4 45.8 46.3 58.7
2018 Nian 1 Yue 49.5 50.4 52.9 59.7 51.8 47.0 45.3 56.8
2018 Nian 2 Yue 49.0 49.8 50.8 53.4 49.2 46.7 44.9 58.2
2018 Nian 3 Yue 51.3 51.3 53.0 53.4 48.9 47.3 46.0 58.7
2018 Nian 4 Yue 50.7 50.2 52.6 53.0 50.2 47.2 46.2 58.4
2018 Nian 5 Yue 51.2 50.9 53.0 56.7 53.2 46.1 45.9 58.7
2018 Nian 6 Yue 49.8 50.0 52.8 57.7 53.3 46.3 45.5 57.9
2018 Nian 7 Yue 49.8 49.6 51.5 54.3 50.5 47.1 45.7 56.6
2018 Nian 8 Yue 49.4 49.1 51.8 58.7 54.3 47.4 46.7 57.0
2018 Nian 9 Yue 48.0 48.5 51.5 59.8 54.3 47.4 45.2 56.4
2018 Nian 10 Yue 46.9 47.6 51.0 58.0 52.0 47.1 44.3 56.4
2018 Nian 11 Yue 47.0 47.1 50.8 50.3 46.4 48.6 44.3 54.2

The production index was 51.9% , which was 0.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month . It is still in the boom zone, indicating that manufacturing production continues to maintain its growth momentum.

The new order index was 50.4% , down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month , above the critical point, indicating that the growth rate of orders for manufacturing enterprises has slowed down.

The raw material inventory index was 47.4% , up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point, indicating a decrease in the main raw material inventory of the manufacturing industry.

The employee index was 48.3% , up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month , below the critical point, indicating that the decline in the number of manufacturing enterprises has narrowed.

The supplier’s delivery time index was 50.3% , up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and rising above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing raw material suppliers’ delivery time has increased.

Second, the operation of China’s non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index

In November 2018 , China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.4% , down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month , indicating that non-manufacturing growth has slowed, but it is still expanding.

In terms of industries, the service industry business activity index was 52.4% , up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month , and the service industry expansion has accelerated. From the perspective of industry categories, the business activity indices of the air transport industry, postal industry, telecommunications radio and television and satellite transmission services, Internet software information technology services, monetary and financial services, capital market services, insurance and other industries are all located at 56.0% and above. In the high boom area, the total business volume has achieved rapid growth. The business activity index of the road transport industry, catering industry, real estate industry, residential service and repair industry is below the critical point, and the total business volume has declined. The construction industry business activity index was 59.3% , down 4.6 percentage points from the previous month , and the construction industry production growth rate slowed down.

The new order index was 50.1% , which was the same as last month and slightly above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing market demand remained stable overall. In terms of industries, the service industry’s new order index was 48.9% , down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and below the critical point. The construction industry’s new orders index was 56.5% , up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month .

Table Main non-manufacturing index of China (seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %
  Business activity new order Input

price

selling price Practitioner Business Activity

expected

2017 Nian 11 Yue 54.8 51.8 56.2 52.8 49.2 61.6
2017 Nian 12 Yue 55.0 52.0 54.8 52.6 49.3 60.9
2018 Nian 1 Yue 55.3 51.9 53.9 52.6 49.4 61.7
2018 Nian 2 Yue 54.4 50.5 53.2 49.9 49.6 61.2
2018 Nian 3 Yue 54.6 50.1 49.9 49.3 49.2 61.1
2018 Nian 4 Yue 54.8 51.1 52.7 50.6 49.0 61.5
2018 Nian 5 Yue 54.9 51.0 54.2 50.6 49.2 61.0
2018 Nian 6 Yue 55.0 50.6 53.5 51.1 48.9 60.8
2018 Nian 7 Yue 54.0 51.0 53.9 52.0 50.2 60.2
2018 Nian 8 Yue 54.2 50.6 54.3 50.9 50.4 61.4
2018 Nian 9 Yue 54.9 51.0 55.6 51.5 49.3 60.1
2018 Nian 10 Yue 53.9 50.1 54.9 51.2 48.9 60.6
2018 Nian 11 Yue 53.4 50.1 50.8 49.4 48.7 60.9


Table 
China’s non-manufacturing other sub-indices (seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %
  New export order Order in hand stock Supplier delivery time
2017 Nian 11 Yue 50.9 44.1 46.5 51.6
2017 Nian 12 Yue 51.5 43.8 46.3 51.3
2018 Nian 1 Yue 50.1 44.4 46.5 51.3
2018 Nian 2 Yue 45.9 43.8 47.6 50.7
2018 Nian 3 Yue 50.4 44.3 46.2 51.6
2018 Nian 4 Yue 50.0 44.4 46.7 51.5
2018 Nian 5 Yue 49.1 44.1 46.0 51.7
2018 Nian 6 Yue 48.2 44.0 46.4 51.6
2018 Nian 7 Yue 48.9 45.4 45.6 51.3
2018 Nian 8 Yue 49.0 43.9 46.5 51.4
2018 Nian 9 Yue 49.8 43.8 47.1 51.6
2018 Nian 10 Yue 47.8 43.8 47.4 51.5
2018 Nian 11 Yue 50.1 43.7 46.7 51.4

That is unequivocal slowing. Internal and external.

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