Australian dollar short-squeezed higher

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

AUD opened weak this morning but has squeezed higher ever since the still epic short is squeezed:

Bonds are bid:

XJO is weak:

Big Iron is up:

Big Oil is down:

Big Gold strong:

Big Banks are still in free fall:

Big Property has lifted with the DHG approval. Fade it!

The bourse is headed for a retest of recent lows.

David Llewellyn-Smith
Latest posts by David Llewellyn-Smith (see all)


  1. The Traveling Wilbur

    “a retest of recent Lowes?”.

    I think the regulators are up to bat *next* week. Looking forward to it.

      • – No, I am NOT sarcastic. Yes, Australia is running a (small ??) Current Account Surplus & therefore a (small ??) Trade Surplus. And that’s – in general – a force pushing a currency higher.

      • Interesting. So, Australia is exporting more than it’s importing (mainly driven by China’s persevering thirst for iron ore and coal – still at record levels); but, a significant amount of foreign financial remittance is happening to offset this and send the current account into deficit (main drivers? Indians sending Australian earned dollars back to India, Chinese rent earned in Australia being sent overseas, foreign owned (mainly USA and to an extent, China) companies operating in Australia and sending the profits out of Australia etc.?)

      • Servicing interest and dividends mainly and some other services – very little to do with earning remittancs
        Australians think that all these foreign companies just come and give us money because we are a bunch of lackadaisical knockabout fun guys and they love us….and they don’t want any return on their money? That’s what their politicians, RBA, Bankers et al persuade them to think.
        Throw in a bunch of globalist moronic university professors and this cake has been cooked long since.

    • Your lack of knowledge about economic matters and refusal to even look at facts remains consistent with your stance in other areas. After time reading here how you can remain so ignorant is a mystery to me.
      The ANNUAL CAD is now back in the $50 to $60 BILLION A$60,000,000,000 – nice round looking number eh Willy – lots of zeros so it probably amounts to nothing!
      So you and your mates can give us a l;ist of all the resources mines industries and RE you plan to sell to foreigners in order to cover, not only the current deficit, but also the monster CAD that comes after you ban coal exports and kill half off any farm exports from the country?

      • – Seems I am doing a good job of getting under your skin.
        – If you’re so worried about the CAD then I have good news for you. It will shrink when (not if) our housing bubble implodes. No need to worry about those foreigners. Because when we default on our debts then those foreigners want to get rid of their australian assets. They also will take a MAJOR/GIANT financial hit. No need to sell those assets to foreigners. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a CAS somewhere in the future.
        – Don’t get me wrong: I expect our AUD (along with A LOT OF other currencies) to fall against the USD and Yen in the next cycle of deleveraging. What the USD will do against the Yen remains open for discussion.
        – I agree. I am holding a number of views that are NOT accepted by some analysts and financial commentators. Some of my previous views turned out to be wrong and were revised. But for other views I still have to see the first good solid counter evidence. If the people are able to provide that counter evidence then I will change my mind. Not one second sooner.
        – Farm exports ? They will shrink as well because of a number of factors. One of those factors is the upcoming (worldwide) “recession”.