Will the trade war derail the US stock market?

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Via Zero Hedge comes JPM:

Late last week, JPMorgan became the latest to drastically revise it outlook, and in a note from strategist John Normand writes that the bank has “adopted a new baseline that assumes a US-China endgame involving 25% US tariffs on all Chinese goods in 2019.”

As a reminder of how methodically the US has been advancing a campaign some consider “random and capricious”, Normand summarizes the current state of affairs, noting that Phase I involved tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports in July and August; Phase II levied 10% tariffs on $200bn of imports in late September that rise to 25% in January; and Phase III is the threat to impose 25% taxes on another $267bn of imports at some stage.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.