Will Australia choose the US or China?

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Jim “Mad Dog” Mattis is unequivocal at Bloomie:

Secretary of Defense James Mattis played down tensions with Beijing, saying the U.S. was “not out to contain China” and was cooperating whenever possible, but that there would be times they would “step on each other’s toes.”

“Obviously, we’re not out to contain China. We’d have taken an altogether different stance had that been considered. It has not been considered,” he told reporters Monday on a plane en route to Vietnam.

“We seek a relationship with China that’s grounded in fairness, reciprocity and respect for sovereignty,” he said.

But Richard McGregor got a different message from Washington at the AFR:

…look no further than the phrase that has become the talk of Washington, of a “de-coupling” between the US and China.

…Washington, in turn, will be pressuring allies like Australia to follow suit, in effect asking them to make a long-term bet on US industry policy on the grounds of alliance solidarity and national security.

…In meeting after meeting in Washington in October, I was told the US had decided it would no longer, as officials put it, “enable” China’s rise. Instead, the US would pursue policies to protect its own interests more directly.

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Australia should not choose. Thankfully, I doubt there will be the need. Chinese growth is going to diminish from here as it sinks into rising bad debt. Thus we do need to hedge anyway by seeking to diminish Australia’s Chinese trade dependence, promoting democratic alliances worldwide, beefing up the Pacific militarily and cutting immigration.

If forced, there is no doubt which way we should choose, a glimpse of future Pilbara labour camps is available in Xinjiang, via the NYT:

Under mounting international criticism, China has given its most extensive defense yet of its sweeping campaign to detain and indoctrinate Muslims, with a senior official on Tuesday describing its network of camps in the far west as humane job-training centers.

Rights groups, American lawmakers and a United Nations panel have assailed the “transformation through education” camps holding Uighurs and members of other Muslim minority groups in China’s far northwestern Xinjiang region. Hundreds of thousands have been held in the camps — one estimate says a million — and former inmates who have fled abroad have described them as virtual prisons that engage in harsh brainwashing.

But the chairman of Xinjiang’s government, Shohrat Zakir, himself an ethnic Uighur, called the camps a “humane” and lawful shield against terrorism in an interview published by China’s official Xinhua news agency. He said the facilities gave Uighurs and other Muslims courses in the Chinese language and taught them to be law-abiding citizens. They also receive training in job skills such as making clothes, e-commerce, hairdressing and cosmetology, Mr. Zakir said.

Mr. Zakir said that “students” in the facilities were provided with free meals, air-conditioned dormitories, movie screenings and access to computer rooms.

“Xinjiang has launched a vocational education and training program according to the law,” Mr. Zakir said. “Its purpose is to get rid of the environment and soil that breeds terrorism and religious extremism.”

Mr. Zakir did not say how many Muslims had been sent to the camps, but he appeared to acknowledge for the first time that people were being held against their will in the facilities for months or years at a time.

He said the program dealt with people suspected of wrongdoing that fell short of requiring criminal convictions, and that they received “graduation certificates” only after signing agreements and meeting certain criteria. Some detainees, he said, were being prepared for release and assignment to jobs at the end of 2018.

Mr. Zakir suggested the campaign would continue for many years. The “deradicalization” program is showing results, he said, “but the duration, complexity and intensity remain acute, and we must maintain high vigilance.”

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…”vocational education and training”. Perhaps it can be grafted onto the carcass of TAFE!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.