Vic Liberals join states’ revolt against mass immigration

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By Leith van Onselen

Slowly but surely, the consensus around the mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy continues to unravel. After NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian this month called for immigration to be halved, thus echoing NSW Labor leader Luke Foley, Victoria’s Opposition leader, Matthew Guy, has directly challenged the federal government’s migration program. From the Herald-Sun:

THE state Opposition is pushing a radical shake-up of immigration, which would allow it to limit arrivals in Melbourne.

Victoria’s increasingly congested capital city is growing by 2700 people a week, and its population is tipped to hit eight million by 2050.

…under the Victorian Coalition policy, states would have just as much say as Canberra in assessing applications for skilled migration visas.

Under the plan, Victoria’s vetting of applicants would focus on skills, jobs, and where migrants would settle; Canberra’s would focus on identity, health and character…

“Melbourne is jam-packed,” he told the Herald Sun.

“The population squeeze is putting enormous stress on our roads, public transport, schools and hospitals.

“And it’s having an impact on everyone’s quality of life.

“We believe Victoria needs a greater say in how many people come, and where they settle. “We are at bursting point because (Premier) Daniel Andrews has lost control of population growth.

“We need the right growth in the right places at the right time. We have the wrong growth, in the wrong places, at the wrong time”…

Dr Bob Birrell, head of the Australian Population Research Institute, said the policy was a good start to dealing with population growth.

“It’s important that Victoria challenges the federal migration program because it’s delivering extraordinarily high numbers into Melbourne and Sydney,” he said.

Matthew Guy has correctly identified the problem, which will only get worse under current ‘Big Australia’ policy settings. That is, Infrastructure Australia’s recent report projected that liveability in Melbourne would be crushed as the city’s population reaches 7.3 million by 2046, with traffic congestion worsening and access to jobs, schools, hospitals and green space all declining relative to today:

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However, what Matthew Guy and the other state leaders really need to do is demand that immigration be reduced back towards the historical average (see next chart), as well as demand the Commonwealth provide funding for every new migrant resident. This way, the huge infrastructure costs from Australia’s mass immigration policy would be internalised by the federal government, making them rethink the program.

Regardless, with the NSW Government’s recent capitulation, which follows the NSW Opposition’s demands for lower immigration, as well as Matthew Guy’s sermon above, it shows that mass immigration has become toxic politically.

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If the pressure continues to build, the federal government will soon be forced to cut.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.