Lol, whoa! Check out the new China data. First up the headline numbers with GDP soft at 6.5%, industrial production likewise at 5.8%, fixed asset investment investment lifted slightly at 5.4% and so did retail sales at 9.2%:
That may be the leading edge of the blow coming to industrial output from US tariffs.
But the offset is clear as a bell and it is the Chinese Communist Party’s Pilbara put. Construction starts are off their face at 16.4% YTD:
We’re now on track to smash the 2011/12 record for floor area new starts:
More shit is now under construction in China than ever before by some distance:
Real estate sales have been signalling a slowdown for some time and continue to do so:
From January to September , the sales area of commercial housing was 1,193.13 million square meters, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year . The growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points from January to August . Among them, the sales area of residential buildings increased by 3.3% , the sales area of office buildings decreased by 9.3% , and the sales area of commercial business buildings decreased by 1.1% . The sales of commercial housing was 1,0413 billion yuan, an increase of 13.3% , and the growth rate dropped by 1.2 percentage points. Among them, residential sales increased by 15.6% , office sales decreased by 5.0% , and commercial business sales increased by 3.0% .
But we’re still waiting for it to appear in starts! Infrastructure has started to turn as well but it’s early days for stimulus:
Meanwhile, steel output remains insane:
With concrete still showing evidence of the infrastructure slowdown:
There should still be a further slowing baked in here as starts catch down to sales in realty. Then we’ve got Winter shutdowns and the developing blow to industrial output.
But beyond the next six months, what else can China do about falling industrial output other than more apartments to Mars and bridges to nowhere?