APRA housing investment loan growth turns negative
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There’s no reprieve for specufestors in this month’s APRA mortgage data. Monthly flows are weak and getting weaker:
| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Sep-18 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Aug-18 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Jul-18 | -0.3 | -0.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun-18 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 14.0 | 0.5 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| May-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Apr-18 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| Mar-18 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Feb-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Jan-18 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Dec-17 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Nov-17 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Oct-17 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Sep-17 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 0.1 |
The big four are converging below zero:
Annual growth is grinding inexorably towards zero for the top eight despite Mad Macquarie:
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| ANZ | CBA | MQG | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Sep-18 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 41.2 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 5.8 | -2.1 | 1.2 |
| Aug-18 | -1.5 | -1.1 | 37.5 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 5.0 | -4.1 | 1.3 |
| Jul-18 | -1.4 | -1.5 | 29.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 3.7 | -3.2 | 1.4 |
| Jun-18 | -1.2 | -4.2 | 24.4 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | -2.1 | 0.8 |
| May-18 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| Apr-18 | -0.1 | -4.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| Mar-18 | 0.5 | -4.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Feb-18 | 1.4 | -4.0 | -0.7 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
| Jan-18 | 2.0 | -3.6 | -3.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Dec-17 | 2.0 | -2.9 | -5.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Nov-17 | 2.4 | -2.0 | -6.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | -3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Oct-17 | 2.5 | -0.8 | -8.0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Sep-17 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -8.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | -3.8 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.