A massive Pacific trade deal will boost Australia’s national income by $15.6 billion by 2030 and benefit all sectors, says Labor.
Opposition trade spokesman Jason Clare told parliament on Thursday independent economic analysis of the Trans-Pacific Partnership shows that while it doesn’t benefit all sectors equally, no sectors would be worse off…
“There’s agreement it will provide relatively modest benefits in the short-term, with potential for more significant economic gains in the long-term if more countries in the region sign up,” he said…
[Clare] says independent economic analysis of the trade deal provides Australians with more honesty.
“It doesn’t over-hype the potential benefits or the potential impact of an agreement like this,” he said.
“But it does show a positive impact and that’s important given the scepticism that a lot of people have about deals like this.”
You know what they say about economic modelling: garbage in, garbage out. Nor is this modelling “independent”, since it was commissioned by the following business groups:
- the Australian Industry Group;
- Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry;
- Export Council of Australia;
- Minerals Council of Australia (MCA);
- Financial Services Council;
- Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association;
- Business Council of Australia;
- Winemakers’ Federation of Australia;
- Freight and Trade Alliance;
- the Australian Food and Grocery Council; and
- National Farmers Federation.
The sad reality is that results from modelling tends to reflect the wishes of the parties commissioning it rather than providing a rigorous independent assessment of community-wide impacts.
In any event, separate modelling by Tufts University of the original TPP (including the US) estimated small job losses for Australia of nearly 40,000 people, as well as negligible gains in real GDP:
So, one can reasonably assume that the impacts of the TPP on both ‘jobs and growth’ are likely to be tiny and equate to little more than a rounding error.
Moreover, we know that the TPP contains nasties including ISDS as well as potential extensions to patent and copyright protections, which are unlikely to be captured in the modelling, not to mention easier access to wage-crushing foreign labour.
At a minimum, Labor should have demanded that the TPP be referred to the Productivity Commission (PC) for its expert assessment of the costs and benefits prior to a parliamentary vote. The PC are a truly independent body with the necessary expertise to assess the TPPt for its overall welfare impacts.
The PC has also been highly sceptical of the TPP, citing particular concerns around intellectual property and ISDS, as well as recommended greater oversight and scrutiny of FTAs before they are signed.
Curiously, Jason Clare acknowledged these issues on Tuesday, promising to implement better processes for future trade deals:
“At the moment trade deals are negotiated in secret with not enough input from Parliament, industry, unions and civil society groups or the community. Labor will change that.”
A Labor government would make labour-market testing compulsory, prevent Australia entering agreements that contain investor-state dispute settlement provisions, and introduce increased transparency and consultation in trade deal negotiations and a tougher national interest test.
Why wait until future trade deals? Why not take action now and block the TPP until the PC has concluded a robust, transparent assessment?
Labor has once again shown that it is a fake ‘workers party’.
