Moody’s delusional house price forecasts

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By Leith van Onselen

Moody’s Analytics has released a report forecasting a 1.6% fall in housing prices across Australia in 2018. The firm expects house prices in Sydney to decline by 5.1% in 2018, although some suburbs will record larger declines while others will record growth. House prices in Melbourne are forecast to rise by 0.3% in 2018, with Brisbane tipped to record growth of 1.5% and prices in Perth to fall by 1.9%. The forecasts are based on historical data from CoreLogic’s Hedonic Home Value Index:

We expect national house values to fall by 1.6% in 2018 following the 9.5% gain in 2017….

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.