Via Westpac today:
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The Aussie was very stable inside 0.73-0.75 from late June to early August, before finally breaking down to 19 month lows near 0.72 mid-August on Turkey-inspired global risk aversion. Such levels were quite oversold when judged by our short-term fair value estimate, which held nearer 0.75. AU-US yield differentials have been broadly stable in recent weeks, while Australia’s key commodity prices have been mixed, overall holding well within 2018 ranges. Still, AUD risks probably do still lie to the downside in September, given the confluence of FOMC meeting, US review of China tariffs and EUR/Italy budget risks. (22 Aug).
Makes sense to me.
