Is the Turkish crisis a dry run for China?

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The classic emerging market external crisis engulfing Turkey should be of great interest to Aussie investors. As is always the case when the US Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, capital repatriates from far flung jurisdictions where it sought out higher returns in the good times. If the emerging market in question was not careful during that boom, it can find itself facing a toxic combination of a falling currency, rising inflation and tightening monetary conditions all at once as the boom goes bust.

Turkey was not careful.

During the boom it accumulated large foreign-denominated debts:

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.