A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 1,250 Australian electors on August 22 shows Peter Dutton is Australia’s least preferred Prime Minister:
“Today’s (Wednesday August 22) Snap SMS Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is preferred as ‘Better Prime Minister’ to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%) despite the leadership speculation surrounding Turnbull this week following a challenge to his leadership by Peter Dutton.
“There is continuing speculation that Dutton will launch another leadership challenge to Turnbull as soon as today. If the Liberal Party chose to elect Peter Dutton as the new Liberal Party Leader they would be setting Bill Shorten and the ALP on course for victory at the next Federal Election.
“On the central question of who would make the Better Prime Minister Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly preferred to Peter Dutton (36.5%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ following Dutton’s challenge to Turnbull on Tuesday morning.
“Current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is preferred to Shorten across almost all key demographics including both genders, in all six States and amongst those aged 18-24 and over 50. Shorten leads amongst 25-34yr olds and it’s a dead heat between the two for those aged 35-49.
“In contrast, the results are almost reversed for Dutton. Shorten is preferred to Dutton by both genders, in all six States and by Australians under the age of 65.
Only Australians aged 65+ believe Dutton would make a Better Prime Minister than Shorten and by a slim margin (50% cf. 46%). Dutton is not significantly stronger in his home State of Queensland than any other state.
“The choice for Liberal MPs and Senators should be clear if they want a chance of winning the next Federal Election and that means sticking with current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull despite the turmoil.
“This Morgan Poll did not ask about the preference for Foreign Minister Julie Bishop as Prime Minister however in the last Morgan Poll conducted regarding the preferred leader of the Liberal Party Bishop on 30% was preferred to Turnbull (27%) and all other candidates including Dutton (5%).
“Roy Morgan also asked electors what worries they have about a re-elected L-NP Government – whether led by Turnbull or Dutton, and also what worries electors have about an ALP Government elected at the next Federal Election. A detailed breakdown of responses will be available to view on Friday.”
Not that preferred PM is indicative of voting patterns but it’s symbolic.
Labor must be counting its lucky stars. Bill Shorten is the Steven Bradbury of Australian politics.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
