The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, but model outlooks and current observations indicate the tropical Pacific may warm to El Niño levels in spring.
El Niño WATCH means that there is approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing in 2018, which is about twice the normal likelihood. History shows that when the ENSO Outlook reaches El Niño WATCH, El Niño has developed in half of those years. Hence, El Niño WATCH is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur; it is an indication that some of the typical precursors of an event are in place. ENSO is just one of several climate drivers that can influence Australian rainfall and temperature patterns.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
