RBA terrified of household debt

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Via Westpac:

The minutes of the Reserve Bank Board’s July monetary policy meeting provide some significant additional colour around the Bank’s current thinking. The main points of interest are: 1) a slightly more tentative tone around the outlook; 2) the reinstated line that the next cash rate move “would more likely be an increase than a decrease” but with a clearer qualification that this would not be any time soon; 3) expanded comments on the rise in bank funding costs, albeit without any strong conclusions; and 4) additional commentary about a ‘special paper’ prepared for the meeting on Australian household debt.

As to be expected, the main discussion was as per the Governor’s post-meeting decision statement: a little less positive on the global front, acknowledging uncertainty around trade policy abroad and rising short term wholesale interest rates locally, but assessing the Australian data flow as in line with the Bank’s above trend growth view, with a slightly firmer outlook for labour markets but key uncertainties still hanging on the outlook for the consumer.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.