Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar to 90 cents?

In response to the EU/US trade “deal” overnight, Asian stocks have returned a mixed session today, as the weaker USD drags down correlated stock markets, particularly in Japan. The plunge in Facebook shares after hours is also undermining confidence in tech stocks, while trade in Yuan is becoming even more volatile both onshore and offshore.

The Shanghai Composite has given back most of its recent breakout to finish 0.8% lower at 2879 points, getting back below recent resistance above 2900 points. The Hang Seng Index is following in lockstep, down 0.9% to 28646, taking back yesterdays gains but still looking like a swing play move higher off of support at 28000 points proper:

S&P futures are steady alongside Eurostoxx with traders anticipating the ECB meeting tonight. The S&P500 four hourly chart looks like a stairway to heaven again as the market tries to move back to the former high at 2875:

Japanese stocks have done much better than expected with a stronger Yen normally providing a headwind. The  Nikkei 225 only closed 0.1% lower at 22586 points, with prices stuck between the low and high moving average band on the daily chart. The USDJPY pair is slowly deflating here, moving well below the weekly downtrend line that had been support in the recent breakout. Its moving towards the mid 110’s as USD loses against the other undollars:

The ASX200 was brought back into line again today, with some fallout on the Nine/Fairfax merger, but otherwise a scratch session to  close at 6244 points,  still respecting support at 6200 points but unable to successively retest the recent highs. The Aussie dollar was unable to translate last nights gains into further move higher, finding short term resistance at the 74.50 level:

The data calendar continues with the closely watched ECB meeting and interest rate decision and the even more closely listened to press conference with Super Mario thereafter.

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Comments

      • Point is goawf is reaching its limits and increasing costs due to regulation.

        E.g. its product is the people that use it.

      • Meanwhile Goog/Alphabet is up! Despite having similar business models re: Advertising.

      • lukehowardMEMBER

        Well, you can get the rest of the world connected and get them on Facebook but – the question is, do they want to be? And once you’ve done that, with worldwide population growth at 1.2%, is that enough to satisfy investors? (Then you need to sell them something else.)

      • lukehowardMEMBER

        Re: Google/Alphabet, my opinion is that search less likely to wane with trends than a particular social media platform; also Alphabet are diversified into other markets (even if none of them have paid off yet). For the geeks amongst us, Fuchsia is worth a look (although I heard it described the other day as a “senior engineer retention program”).

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Facebook ( zuckerberg ) is caught in the Mueller investigation and is about to be hung, drawn, and quartered.
        He conspired with HRC, et al, to subvert the Presidential election.

        ABC = fake news.

      • IP…

        The data is what you must contend with and not the ABC, its not some ideological editorial piece.

        Just a pro tip…. on the grand CT stuff… watch out for the first step in suspending disbelief when someone or group is shaping a narrative…. its a long way down. Next thing you know and your in a cult, then regardless of evidence to the contrary you have to believe in irretrievable stakes in the ground. Because your entire reality, including yourself – is – dependent on it. To “change” that view would be the destruction of your concept of self and how it views reality.

        Then people wonder how mobs like Heavens Gate and Scientology fill the pews contra all the evidence against them – rational agents…. chortle….

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Skippy, and someone of your self proclaimed “intellect” should realize that a stock doesn’t lose 1/4 of its value because groef…ffs.
        Granted, it’s after hours trading ( vol ) but wait 24-48 hrs and then tell me what’s what.

      • Gavin none of the the two is built on advertising, its information, that’s it, where people are the commodity. People are incited by various means to use these platforms for social or business activity, this in turn gives these platforms information about individuals and group behavior which can be sold. Your personal rights or privacy is of little concern, you accepted the EULA conditions e.g. a contract that can and will change arbitrarily. On that note one should be aware of Gates influence due to personal network connections in establishing it,

      • IP…

        If you don’t understand the fundamentals about how these tech stocks work and as a business model and confuse market reactions I can splain it for you.

        Did you miss the dotcom thingy – ????

      • BTW I never self proclaimed intellect, personification is not an argument contra to what I have stated above. If you would like to specifically and with some data, beyond personal insinuation I would love to hear it.

        Did you miss the information about the EU and China screwing with their basic business model. Lmmao AOL…..

      • Huh…. ABC is fake news and CNN is the truth if it fits into your view of reality…. chortle…

        Next you’ll quote Maddow if it fits into your narrative.

      • Who’s talking about Trump, I was talking about the stock price of facebook and your off on one of your CT narratives. You seem to be part of a group think cult that is grounded in some fear based core mental anchor points and some great prophet that will bring rain. LOL read some history, one religious mob thought they had the real deal and went to war. Got their but kicked and then he genuflected to the winnar about how brilliant they were, only reason we know about the whole thing. He lived to write a book about it.

        Dude I think Trumps bio is all I need to say on that matter, if that’s the kinda thing you think we should all emulate and expect a saner world…. He’s hell bent on going even further with financial dereg than pre GFC, ending environmental protections, hates labour, increased MIC spending, reinstated some of the most feral foreign policy neocon advocates, I mean if you advocate an oligarchical social system hes your man….

      • Do you grok he was such a slimy business man that only Deutsche Bank would touch him in the end because of his want to BK losses after putting the debt in some subsidiary.

        That you project and then leg hump this guy because it fulfills some ideological projection that squares some deep psychological condition due to cogdis is just a cherry on the top of the metaphysical wankery.

      • Environmentally he’s just the opposite of what your banging on about and the whole CT stuff is not helping….

        Just look at his EPA picks ffs, who gives a rats ass about his wind vane public statements. He would frack your backyard for 2 years of output and then use the funds to build more golf courses. Are you mentally impaired – ?????

      • interested partyMEMBER

        You know just as well as I do that the fracking is going to continue..no matter who gets the top seat. but that is a story for another day.
        The world is in one hell of a mess….. so maybe it’s worth trying something a bit different, like trump…. because there is no future otherwise. Call it a hail mary pass or something like that…. what other choice do we have? And just to clarify… I don’t do religion. Been in a church 2 time in the last 15 years….. to bury friend and family.

    • interested partyMEMBER

      Skip, I get trumps background, I am aware he has even bragged about it, but that does not change the facts regarding the corruption that HRC et al pulled during her time as SOS. That Trump has allowed justice to take due course and is starting to show results is a good thing, isn’t it? Or are you so resigned to the state of things that you see no hope of society ever getting equal justice.

      The corruption is driving the results we live with…socially, environmentally, financially. Get rid of the corruption and we may stand a chance of sorting out the mess…. but it won’t happen if the corruption remains in the seats of power. Trump has shown that he is serious about cleaning it up….regardless of his past. I won’t hump his leg….but I will support him if he continues to clean out the crap.

      • So HRC is more corrupt than Trump, is that your argument, deranged does not cover it. What part about duopoly is confusing, you only get the option of leg humping the one that projects what ever ID politic perspective filling your head. Other than that you get the same economic treatment.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        “Other than that you get the same economic treatment.”
        I reckon your wrong there old fella. The changes trump is bringing in are noteworthy…the whole world is up in arms over them.
        Not saying they are better or worse at this stage other than to say that the old set had us going over the cliff pronto.

        You gonna answer the questions in the last comment…or do you just abuse….

      • interested partyMEMBER

        so abuse it is eh……
        I tried reason, no work.
        I tried question…no answers ( curious, that )

        Seems when someone thinks something other than what you proscribe, the difficulties begin.

        I have tried to explain my position… if you don’t get it, not my issue anymore.

      • I’m sorry Skippy, you just don’t seem to get it ………….. as IP posted :

        “I reckon your wrong there old fella. The changes trump is bringing in are noteworthy…the whole world is up in arms over them.
        Not saying they are better or worse at this stage other than to say that the old set had us going over the cliff pronto.

        You gonna answer the questions in the last comment…or do you just abuse….”

        IMHO it’s not about Trump the person but Trump the President …………. very different things. The more you focus on the person and the deficiencies of the US system, the more you miss the point [IMHO] ……. as I posted on the weekend, and BTW Skip, you didn’t answer my question either ……..

        Trump the President, has introduced in his own personal style, very overdue change in the way international, as well as national, politics are conducted ……….. vive la difference !!

      • It seems your a corporatist and monopolist IPA with some strong metaphysical ideological dispositions.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Good grief…. hey skip, why not empty the cupboard completely and spray any other descriptors you have laying about…….or better still….how about grow up.
        Thought you were above this sort of rubbish.

      • IP….

        Your funny mate, you attempted to subvert the perspective about facebook and then mangle it into something about trump, and then when that avenue is shown to be BS you have a sad….

        Survival of the fittest is a two way street kid.

      • interested partyMEMBER

        Skip, Trump and Clinton both ran for prez. Let that sink in.
        facebook aligned itself with the clinton camp. Let that sink in.
        I stated that facebook/zuckerberg are implicated in the mueller investigation ergo shareprice
        your comment ….
        https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/07/macro-afternoon-459/#comment-3153511

        You took the tangent dude…own it.
        Clinton lost. Deal with it. oh…. and answer questions when asked, it’s polite.
        Goodnight, i’m done arguing with you.

      • Dude FB price is due to international events and not your ideological myopia on the duopoly politics in America, you need to escape your little metaphysical cube.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      A bit of game-playing there. There’s guys applying but not getting any response.

      This ain’t for Australians.

    • A lot of guys coming off those LNG plants, my mate got into a gas rig before the rest, big $, but hard yakka

  1. All these predictions of when and how much house prices will fall yet no data or even a theory to back it up. Currency? GFC2? Employment? Immigration and the Chinese? Negative gearing? Construction peaking? Household debt levels? Flood of IO to P+I? Predicting is hard work but at least MB explain their position. Imagine writing a uni assignment without any references, you’d fail.
    https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/australias-property-price-correction-still-has-some-way-to-go-20180726-h13432-754194/?utm_campaign=strap-masthead&utm_source=the-age&utm_medium=link&utm_content=pos4&ref=pos1

    • In the USA many people over 50 cannot afford the $25k-$30k pa private health insurance. Those who are fortunate enough to have their own home end up having to sell it to receive life savings treatment.

      That tweet confirms we are on a similar path to the USA. Greedy medical associations lobbying for the privilege to overcharge to medicare, and the government’s response is to give up and force people to fend for themselves.

    • Can you flesh out why it is a bad decision?
      A tweet from the group who makes money from MRIs decrying a decision which reduces their income is not really evidence of a bad decision.
      You can still get an MRI but you will need a specialist referral for it.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        I’d be willing to bet it has next to zero impact on how many MRIs are done but a big impact on how much said specialists earn.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur

    Reusa oversees return of large organ

    Genuine Reusa sighting! Captured on video courtesy of Your public broadcaster!!!

    https://iview.abc.net.au/show/abc-news-at-five

    Reusa unveiled in all his glory.

    7:51 is THE moment (of today’s edition). Sorry about the iview, but the footage isn’t available separately on youtube (from the ABC) yet.

    Unprecedented in the anals of Australian history. If his choice of subject material for his appearance seems a little aesoteric at first, things will become clearer when you realise the story is about a large organ.

    And people thought good journalism was on the way out. Thank you ABC, where would we be without you?

  3. Thomas Jefferson warned about it.

    “I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies,” Jefferson wrote. ” If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around(these banks) will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

    “The issuing power of currency shall be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”

    • He also like the appreciation his slaves made so to cover the cost of running his estate….

    • Hunting is great. The latest decision by the Threatened Species Commission with making feral cats a pest was long overdue. However they are locking rec hunters out on crown land which is ridiculous.

      As for this, he’s spot on. Jordies is a Labor stooge, but the Bambi effect on the culling brumbies is fkn ridiculous and it usually comes from the middle aged boomer women in the comments section. “such majestic creautres xoxoxo” or some bullsht.