There is no accountability in Straya so it won’t matter. But the tiny falls in house prices so far has shocked “economists”, at the AFR:
- ANZ is now expecting house prices to fall 4 per cent in calendar 2018 and another 2 per cent in calendar 2019
- “The short answer is yes,” National Australia Bank’s Alan Oster said when asked whether he had a more pessimistic view on the housing market since The Australian Financial Review’s last quarterly economist survey was released at the end of March.
- “We saw a pullback in investor activity, both foreign and domestic, over the last year as inevitably leading to price declines, given the importance of this group in the market in recent years,” Sarah Hunter of BIS Economics said.
- Lending standards have already been impacted by the royal commission, according to Capital Economics’ Paul Dales [sees -5%].
- “We see national housing prices as likely to edge down slightly in 2018 and to be broadly flat in 2019. We expect a soft landing in the housing market. We expect a cooling, not a collapse,” said Paul Bloxham at HSBC.
- Commonwealth Bank’s Michael Blythe is expecting prices to fall a bit further but is also optimistic that the market won’t see a big drop from these levels.
- “Strong population growth is preventing house prices from declining too far,” commented Stephen Roberts at Laminar Capital.
- However, if house prices do continue to slide, then Warryn Robertson, portfolio manager at Lazard, believes the damage could spread beyond the housing market.
As prices keep falling, consumption and construction will deteriorate and unemployment begin to rise. It’s what always happens.
