A solid lift in consumer sentiment as well as a pick-up in retail sales, job vacancies and total employee earnings suggests there are some green shoots to the outlook for consumer spending.
Falling dwelling prices, however, pose a risk to the outlook but so far Australian households seem unperturbed.
We expect household expenditure growth to be 2.7% in 2018.
Overview:
Over the past few months there have been some green shoots in the data with respect to the consumer. A few decent monthly retail numbers suggest that consumer spending growth lifted over Q2 2018. And consumer sentiment printed at its highest level since late-2013 in July. In addition, forward looking indicators on the labour market continue to look healthy. They point to employment growth stronger than population growth over the next six months. This means that we should see some soft downward pressure exerted on the unemployment rate. Dwelling prices have been deflating. But so far the mild falls have not had any adverse impact on either consumer confidence or the spending decisions of households.
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Ultimately household expenditure is driven by both the desire and the capacity to spend – the will and the way. Central to these outcomes for most households is: (i) having a job and feeling secure in it (i.e. employment); (ii) feeling confident about the economy and future earning prospects (i.e sentiment); (iii) income (i.e. wages) (iv) wealth (influenced by dwelling prices and to a lesser extent equity prices); and (v) the level of indebtedness. Each factor is covered in this note.
Latest data on consumer spending
There are two key ABS publications that cover consumer spending – retail trade (monthly) and the national accounts (quarterly). Retail trade is a partial measure of household expenditure. It accounts for around 30% of total consumer spending. Unsurprisingly, it has a positive correlation with total household expenditure (chart 1). The most recent data indicates that retail sales growth accelerated in Q2. Retail spending rose by 0.5% in April and 0.4% in May. This suggests that the volume of total consumer spending is likely have lifted in Q2 after posting a soft 0.3% increase in Q1.
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Influences on spending
(i) Jobs: Employment growth has eased more recently. But it still remains well above population growth (chart 3). Over the year to May 2018, the ABS reports that employment rose by a solid 319k. Full-time employment (i.e +35hrs a week) rose by 179k while those in part-time employment rose by 125k. These are strong numbers. And from a consumption perspective, more people in employment (both in absolute terms and as a share of the population) means more spending, all else equal.
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Looking ahead, the underlying fundamentals look positive. In particular:
measures of job vacancies are rising at a solid pace (chart 4). The ABS job vacancies posted a strong 5.7% rise over May to be 24.1% higher over the year;
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business surveys are sending positive signals on labour demand. The employment component of CBA’s Composite Purchasing Managers Index, for example, is well into expansion territory. The NAB Business Survey is also pointing to decent near term jobs growth;
GDP growth is running above trend and forward looking investment intentions are consistent with growth in headcount; and
unit labour costs have been broadly flat which has meant that labour has become relatively cheaper in Australia and more internationally competitive.
The RBA also maintains a positive view on the Australian labour market. Indeed, in his July Statement accompanying the monetary policy decision, RBA Governor Lowe noted that, “solid growth in employment is expected.”
(ii) Consumer sentiment: The mood amongst consumers has improved over the past three months. The Westpac Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment rose by a strong 3.9% in July to its highest level since November 2013 (chart 5). The index is now well above its long-term average. Consumer expectations around the economic outlook have improved despite dwelling prices deflating. This suggests that fears around a negative wealth effect may be overdone. And it also implies that households, as a collective, probably recognise that a small easing in dwelling prices isn’t such a bad thing after such strong growth in the prior years. Indeed, the sentiment survey showed a sharp lift in the proportion of Sydney respondents (possibly 1st home buyers) who saw now as a “good time” to buy. There has also been a lessoning in job security fears. Fears around unemployment have fallen 7.5% over the year.
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The lift in consumer sentiment has closed the gap between business and consumer confidence. Over time, divergences between consumer and business confidence tend to be ‘ironed out’ and the results converge. The recent coming together has been a result of a lift in consumer sentiment against a pullback in business confidence from a high level.
(iii) Wages: Growth in wages remains weak in Australia. The Q1 Wage Price Index (most recent) rose by just 0.5% and the annual rate was steady at 2.1%. There is still a lot of spare capacity in the labour market which is suppressing wages growth. And it may be that the NAIRU is lower than the RBA’s estimate of 5.0% because employee bargaining power is lower.
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But the news is not all bad. There are a few tentative signs that wages growth may be about to lift a little.
First, the WPI including bonuses rose strongly in Q1 2018 and the annual rate picked up to 2.6% (chart 6). It’s possible that there is just some ‘noise’ in the data and the WPI including bonuses will converge with the WPI excluding bonuses next quarter. But it’s also possible that firms are indeed lifting the pay packets of workers by a bit more than 2.1%pa. Instead of doing it via bigger rises in base pay, however, they have preferred to do it with greater use of discretionary payments like bonuses. We will be looking closing at the Q2 WPI for clarity on this.