Where next for the US dollar?

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

Valentin Marinov and Manuel Oliveri, foreign-exchange strategists at Credit Agricole SA (June 25 note)

“It appears that unstable global risk sentiment, driven by rising fears that the global economy is on the verge of a fully fledged trade war and by increased political uncertainty about Europe, has been propelling the latest USD buying”

With speculative USD long positioning now close to multi-year highs, the currency may have moved into overbought territory, so the risk of a downside correction “seems high”

Daniel Katzive, head of currency strategy in North America at BNP Paribas SA (June 21 note)

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.