Joye: Shock surplus coming

The Chris Joye campaign to lift Aussie bank bonds continues today:

Australia’s shrinking professional media appears to have once again completely missed the fact that the government reported a huge $9 billion budget surplus in April, which means it is theoretically possible Treasurer Scott Morrison will deliver voters a shock surplus in the current 2017-18 financial year (on either the net operating balance or fiscal balance measure).

…If Morrison does not scrape home with a 2017-18 surplus, which is very touch and go, this column’s contrarian forecast for the budget to move comfortably into surplus in the next 2018-19 year looks likely (barring a major economic shock).

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.