Investor mortgage lending still slowing
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May APRA banking statistics are out and investor mortgages are still slowing. Headline growth at the big eight banks drop to 0.8% year on year:
| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| May-18 | -0.7 | -4.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.8 | 0.8 |
| Apr-18 | -0.1 | -4.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.2 | -0.5 | 1.1 |
| Mar-18 | 0.5 | -4.3 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Feb-18 | 1.4 | -4.0 | -0.7 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 1.5 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 1.7 |
| Jan-18 | 2.0 | -3.6 | -3.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Dec-17 | 2.0 | -2.9 | -5.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Nov-17 | 2.4 | -2.0 | -6.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | -3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Oct-17 | 2.5 | -0.8 | -8.0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Sep-17 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -8.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | -3.8 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Aug-17 | 2.4 | 0.9 | -8.3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | -4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| Jul-17 | 2.2 | 1.9 | -6.3 | 5.9 | 7.4 | -5.7 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| Jun-17 | 1.8 | 5.7 | -6.6 | 6.0 | 7.2 | -6.3 | 8.8 | -0.3 | 4.9 |
As monthly growth eked out a tiny gain:
| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| May-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Apr-18 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 1.9 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -2.8 | 0.0 |
| Mar-18 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.1 |
| Feb-18 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 1.6 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Jan-18 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| Dec-17 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Nov-17 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Oct-17 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Sep-17 | 0.1 | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 0.1 |
| Aug-17 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -3.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Jul-17 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | 1.0 | -0.6 |
| Jun-17 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
There’s no real evidence that the royal commission has made things any worse for investors. The stall happened in the new year and the current pace is roughly unchanged. Here’s the aggregate chart:
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.