A reprieve for Sydney’s long suffering renters

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By Leith van Onselen

The 2016 Census painted a dire picture for Sydney’s growing army of renters.

The Census showed that the share of Sydney’s households in rented accommodation hit an all-time high 34.1%, up from 29.0 at the 2001 Census:

It also revealed that Sydney’s median rental payments to household disposable income hit an Australian high 25.1% in 2016, up from 21.7% in 2006:

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And that 41.6% of Sydney renters were in “stress” – defined as spending more than 30% of household income on rental payments:

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Thankfully, there has been some modest respite for Sydney’s long suffering renters, according to the latest rental data from Housing NSW.

The first chart below shows that rents across the Greater Sydney region rose by just 1.9% in the year to December 2017:

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This growth was below both CPI (2.2%) and NSW wages growth (2.0%), suggesting Sydney rents actually fell slightly in real terms:

The next chart plots the growth in rents across Greater Sydney in real inflation-adjusted terms by ring:

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As shown above, real rents across the Greater Sydney region have increased by between 53% (Outer Ring) and 75% (Inner Ring) since 1990.

In a similar vein, the next chart plots the nominal growth in rents across Greater Sydney against the wage price index since September 1997:

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As you can see, nominal rents have increased by 152% across Greater Sydney, easily eclipsing the 90% growth in wages over the same period.

Unfortunately, the future looks grim for Sydney renters, with mass immigration-fueled population growth set to drive down vacancies and potentially drive-up rents:

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While construction has ramped-up enormously across Sydney – especially high-rise apartments – this has not been enough to keep up with rampant population growth, with net dwelling additions (completions minus demolitions) already rolling over:

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This is pure evil by Australia’s policy makers. Not only has mass immigration robbed Sydney’s youth of the opportunity to purchase a home, but it is driving up their cost of living via rents as well.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.