Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asia markets have not been able to translate the firm gains on US markets overnight to the region, as the weaker Yen was able to only lift Japanese bourses. The monthly jobs figure in Australia saw the Aussie dollar lift higher strangely enough as the ASX200 was pushed down again. Tonight the focus will be on US Treasuries as yields are now above 3.1% on the 10 year, with initial jobless claims the possible catalyst.

The Shanghai Composite is starting to rollover here, falling 0.5% to finish at 3153 point, again failing to breach resistance at 3200 points. The Hang Seng Index is following a similar path, putting in a small loss after the previous scratch session to finish 0.4% lower at 30991 points. There is some support at the 30700 point level but its tenuous so I’m watching the low moving average for signs of a rollover:

S&P futures are pulling back in response to the poor showing here in Asia, so again watch 2700 points as key support going forward:

Japanese stocks were the the only bright spark as Yen weakened throughout the session. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.5% higher to finish at 22838 points, and while this took back the previous loss, its still unable to get out of its recent sideways funk. The USDJPY pair made a new intra-week high to be almost above the 110.40 level before the City opens, where its on its way to tackling the next line of resistance up at 113:

The ASX200 is slowly forming a double bearish top on the daily charts, unable to make any new highs above the 6150 points level, retracing 0.2% to 6094 points in response to the jobs report. On the other hand the Aussie dollar burst through the 75 handle as it continued its bounce off the bottom of a very wide trend channel on the four hourly chart- but the upside remains limited here:

The economic calendar is relatively quite tonight with US initial jobless claims the only major release on the radar.

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      • TailorTrashMEMBER

        When Straya goes to custard there will be nowhere to hide the Range Rover …..coupled with face recognition technology the Orwellian world has well and truly arrived
        …… wonder I look in a paranoid way at my “smart “ TV………..I’m sure it’s listening and staring at me .

      • Fantastic article on the Repo man.

        @TailorTrash – I am thinking of unplugging my Google home. I watched the film Enemy of the State years ago and thought it was science fiction – now I realise it’s real.. 😀

      • Interesting stuff in that repo article. On the one hand I have quite some sympathy for people losing their mode of transport suddenly – who knows what is missed the next day without the car – but on the flipside they must have known the strings attached to debt.

        Funny enough my last car was a Subaru, and the current one a Volvo, both paid in cash. I’m hardly part of the “urbane upper middle class” though – at 23 and 10 years old respectively they together cost less than 10k kiwibucks. I really just can’t understand the mindset of going into debt for what is often just a status symbol…

      • That repo man story is interesting that now the tech is there to make it so easy. The other part I have to wonder is how long this happens here? How many Audi’s and Merc SUV’s have been bought with equity? How many people have bought on tic from our old mate Jerry the Harpy? Fun times are coming.

      • The system encourages this behavior and makes it seem “normal”. I bought a Suzuki Jimny 08 model because I could easily work on it myself. Mechanically very simple. Perhaps I’m just a doomsday prepper but I’ve been planning for the Oz downturn since I got back to Australia in 2013. So I never wanted a flash car, I wanted something that would save me money and get the job done. Plus cart the dog and greasy car parts if req.

        I read recently that Suzuki is 1 of the most reliable cars out there and that owner satisfaction ratings were high compared to many other cars. I have to say I love owning older cars I can fix myself. I have never liked walking into car dealerships or leaving my cars with mechanics. (Trust issues perhaps?)..

        When fuel prices go up and people are feeling squeezed I’ll be happy I have a gutless 1.3ltr motor. 🙂

  1. LUMBER FUTURES PRICES, YEAR AHEAD VIEWED OVER 5 YEARS, APPEAR TO BE ABOUT BALLISTIC. Very often (say 80% of the time), ballistic ends in bad.

  2. I got a copy of The Land Boomers by Michael Cannon on eBay.

    It’s a top read. Little has changed in many respects.

    • I picked up a copy in Orpheus a second hand book shop in Inverell a few weeks back.

      Great little shop on Ortho street if you are roaming those parts.

    • matthewMEMBER

      Real estate agents in Byron Bay saying prices down 10%in a month. Brothers son told 20%deposit on of the plan apartment in Melbourne not enough now needs 30%.Yeah it’s on like Donkey fuckin Kong

    • Nah mate, he’s just a foreigner he doesn’t understand how our market works. It’s different here and we have dense urban centres lol..

  3. DingwallMEMBER

    A reasonable chunk of the AUD lift was DXY weakness. Exactly how much not sure but it coincided with an asian market opening time. Surely our numberwang couldn’t impact the USD… then again nothing surprises me with the bobbing southern peso.

  4. Cyclone Ranger

    Re haroldus and the who hates who theory… may I inject a refinement on GenX hates both Boomers and Millenials?

    I would have thought your thinking GenXer would indeed hate Boomers, but simply detest Millennials and self-loath (GenX) to a degree where counseling is recommended – for allowing the Boomers to get us to where we are now without having battled waaaaay more along the way. But hey, X-Files and Angel required some significant time sinking… to appreciate properly… and Star Trek NG of course.

    • mild colonialMEMBER

      😅. Although I’m a gen x’er who’s never watched any of those shows.

    • How a marketing tool got so bent out of shape and completely detached from reality into a one size fits all meme dial for ideological twister does not bode well….

      • Just the marsupial I’m looking for.
        I’m looking for a presentation given by a comedian to what I think were a group of advertising folk. I’m pretty sure you posted the link I saw it through. I’m guess that it was about two years ago. It was on the topic of demographics and generations and it completely eviscerated the popular notions. It began with a quote from Time magazine, that sounded like the dross you hear about millennials, but it was written in the 60s about the boomers. It also had a section on the first economic text book, written by an ancient Greek guy, which claimed that the younger generation were lazy good for nothings and would not amount to what his generation are. So, apparently we’ve been on a two and a half millennium decline in abilities and work ethic.

      • Pretty sure I know of the one your talking about, but I’m sorta flat out at the moment. I’ll have a check as time permits and try to have it for you by the weekend.

      • Before bed. Might that be the same old Greek guy that said economics was like running a house hold and then thousands of years later some took it literally, if not, out of context.

      • Take your time and cheers.
        Throwing it up on the weekend links would be perfect.

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        It also had a section on the first economic text book, written by an ancient Greek guy, which claimed that the younger generation were lazy good for nothings and would not amount to what his generation are.

        I suspect the quote you’re talking about here is the one often attributed to Socrates:

        “The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

    • haroldusMEMBER

      I forgot the self loathing. Too whacked on smack (we don’t do coke – too social). I was at the more misanthropic end of the grunge spectrum, so never got into angel and i fckn hated x-files and their fans.

      • Whats so “social” about two birds transported to another time dimension in the only bathroom at the party having a deep convo about everything…. oblivious to everyone waiting outside the door.

    • Oh man, schadnefraudgasm. Please let this be just the start of many forum threads from over leveraged smartarse property investors. Now I want to see a few on whirlpool from the arrogant arses there.

    • Beargasm right there AI.

      I particularly liked the suggestion of “changing to a strategy where you sell your properties”. Mmm, I love the smell of strategy in the morning.

      That said, I do find it kind of weird that they are all so resistant to the idea of selling. Not sure if it is:
      – because they dream of becoming a millionaire who lives off rental income and never works again
      – because they hate tax so much they never want to realise a capital gain
      – because they are actually going to make a loss if they sell
      – because selling is taboo and it is uncool to even mention it (especially as they are all secretly planning on selling). No more relations parties!

      • I know… its like selling is the last thing they could think of.

        They all deserve to go down in flames for their greed and ignorance.

    • Love it as it got to the last page “How to Avoid Paying Back a Low Doc Loan (in part) How to Avoid Paying Back a Low Doc Loan (in part)” anything but sell!

    • “It’s definitely happening. My parents couldn’t refinance IO due to age/APRA, I had to bail them out with cash transfer to bring down LVR, they got 2 year IO instead of 5. Don’t know what going to happen when the 2 years are up, I’m putting aside some money just in case.”

      I read quite a few comments.. they have no idea. Quite shocking really.

      I think above comment says it all.

      When all of a sudden you need a grand a week to pay P+I and can’t. That’s when the deals are to be made.

      People are messed up playing IO property investors and dont even know the terms of their mortgage.

      Maybe have to wait two or more years for it to happen. So much waiting !

      2 more years is another 400k migrants !

    • How about this for a headline in the local rag (Inner West Courier). Which half of it is now Real Estate porn (half of it).

      “The price was one of the cheapest in Five Years, write Owen Roberts and Stephen Nicholls.”

    • Super Phoenix

      Faith in your new regulator, misplaced may be. As is your faith in the Moron side of the Force.

      • Cyclone Ranger

        You realise Chairman Byers is only biding his time until he has control of enough votes in the Senate to bring the entire FIRE industry, and all the pesky rebels with it, under his personal control. For the good of the security of the sector, of course.

        All this other news is just noise meant to distract us while he builds his army of public service droids.

  5. Super Phoenix

    Damn SLX – clear market exhaustion but with a large forced seller waiting in the wings.