Has the ASX double-topped?

The AUD has held its gain this morning:

Bonds are sold despite weak wages:

XJO has formed a massive potential double-top:

Whether it is in force I can see arguments for and against. If the AUD keeps falling then that will be supportive for higher. But if those falls come from the looming iron ore correction then it won’t be!

Dalian has opened stable:

Ex-FMG Big Iron is going parabolic. BHP on oil and RIO on hot air:

Big Gas is down:

Big Gold keeps defying my pessimism:

Big Scum is falling as WBC goes ex-div

Big Puswad is still in denial:

Lousy bourse but hanging in.

Comments

  1. Still a weirdly bifurcated market:

    BHP, RIO, CSL, MQG, ALL near multi-year or all time highs

    NAB, CBA, TLS, AMP, TAH near multi year lows

    Somewhat explained by the international focus vs domestic focus.

  2. Denis413MEMBER

    Re: RIO, any insight into what is driving the hot air?

    Re: ASX double top – looks more like a massive ascending triangle about to pop – but I guess it depends on how one perceives the tea leaves…

    • Brokers expressing a view that it didn’t properly price in current commodity prices, so its sufficient that they just stay flattish for miners to keep rising. A bit lame in my opinion since iron ore bottomed about two and a half years ago but after a lukewarm recovery is only a third of the price it traded at when RIO was last at this price.

      Short answer: momentum.

      • MACD indicates to me far more upside to come, supported by larger ascending triangle perspective.
        Question is where is the momentum coming from whilst the banks sink….

      • Alternatively you could view it as having struck its upper trend line and a potential large scale double top going back to 2011.

        DCE iron ore is flirting with the 475 RMB support again. That could be decisive.

    • looks more like a massive ascending triangle about to pop”” ^^^this – and we are due as well. I don’t see a “double top there”- such a pattern does not play out over the decade+ long time-frames required to see it on that chart. ASX is in a clear uptrend – has been for some time and the trend is still in play IMO. Most of the remaining weak hands were shaken out of the market in the recent correction. This is backed up by the performance of the small-mid cap sector vs the large cap – the growth is coming from the former ATM not the latter. A global commodities up-cycle (which is highly probable) will just add fuel to this fire and give is the “pop”I reckon…. anyway I’ve got my $$ on this, so will see! 😉

      • “Weak hands” haha I love that term. Aren’t they the types who sell out at the lows and buy back at the highs and still have enough cash to survive and do it all again?

        Global commodities up cycle? We are well into that already, but question is does it launch into previous bubbly high levels, make new highs even, or is this a receding ripple from earlier tidal wave. My bet is on the latter.