Via Peter Hartcher over Easter:
The federal parliamentary Liberal Party doesn’t need to see another Newspoll to form the judgment that his leadership is terminal. Turnbull has already “lost” 29 of the 30 consecutive Newspolls that he set as the vital test of success. Turnbull’s self-defined time limit is due to expire in the next fortnight.
Nothing dramatic will happen at that moment. The Coalition is resigned to losing the 30th. But it won’t be a meaningless milestone. Instead, it will signal open season on Turnbull for his internal critics and rivals. The real problem for Turnbull is that his party also expects him to lose not just 30 but 40 or 50 and to keep on losing.
…The Liberal Party has no compelling alternative to Turnbull. If it did, he’d be long gone…The most often touted is Peter Dutton. The conservative faction will begin agitating for him in earnest as the year progresses.
The most plausible is Julie Bishop. Of the Liberal leadership contenders, she is the only one who could credibly improve the Coalition’s vote and win an election.
…Quietly, the Liberals’ expectation now is that Turnbull will not be leading them to the next election. They will focus increasingly on their post-Turnbull prospects as the year wears on.
From the AFR today:
Liberal MPs said they did not believe Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would be removed, although the government’s poor polling is starting to trigger speculation about his leadership.
Asked to comment on Monday, most Liberals refused to discuss the issue, which is likely to get more attention ahead of an expected Newspoll next week that could mark his government’s 30th loss, the same number Mr Turnbull cited when he replaced Tony Abbott as leader in 2015.
Who knows? What they need to do to give themselves a chance is as obvious as they are stupid: cut immigration to kill One Nation and wedge every Labor policy. If it’s not done prior to the election by Do-nothing Malcolm it will certainly be done after with a new leader.
