Comparing Australian house price melts

Via Cameron Kusher of CoreLogic. Melbourne’s slow melt:

Versus Sydney’s not so slow melt:

And Darwin’s endless melt:

Much more melting ahead.

Comments

  1. First of all, it is difficult to visually compare these graphs as they are 17, 24 and 44 months since peak and percentage drop is from 0% to 9% up to 0% to 25%…
    This slow melt will turn into a flood.

  2. Back in the day the Great Princes had interest rate cuts, FHB grants, Moar Immigration and all sorts of other tricks to re-freeze melting markets.

    Now, all those fridges have stopped. And incoming bushfires consisting of the upcoming IO rollover debacle, RC findings, tightening lending standards etc etc.

    Hell will freeze over before the Australian housing market.

  3. No melt, Aggressive bubble burst. Fhb huge boost turns to drag right now. It has saved the bottom of the market until now. Sydney now down 5% from highs and steady 7% pa. That means less equity to borrow against meaning less credit meaning lower prices. Reverse of the bubble up loop. Down will accelerate now

    • Yeah. High end properties in Sydney have fallen, while the bottom end of the market has actually risen slightly due to gummint sponsored FHBs.

      I reckon that action has just about shot it’s load though, and we’ll soon be seeing falls across the price spectrum, which will only accelerate things and add to the confusion of the property “investing” class.

      Has there been any new obscenity laden gibberish from Nathan Birch recently? I’d like to check the unkemptness of his beard and the greasy stains on his t-shirt while listening to him honking about how great it is to have millions in debt. That might sound crazy, but I find it strangely soothing.

    • “The changes could see thousands more humble cottages bulldozed to build duplexes,”

      Yep – regulatory changes to significantly increase supply, exactly what’s needed to stop the bubble deflating further.

    • In Malaysia, most of their blocks are 6x20m. 6x15m of that is 2 story house. Internally, they’re a great size. Zero back yard and the front yard is enough to park two cars. They’re much nicer than the 4m wide Victorian cottages we built in the 1800s.

      That’s where we’re headed.

      House wise, they’re great. But zero back yard and effectively zero front yard means they’re not child friendly. They do have parks nearby though.

      Honestly, in some ways I’d prefer that over some of the shitty compromises we’re making here.

      • The Melbourne inner city Victorian era single fronted blocks are mostly 16½ feet wide, 5m, some are 22 feet wide.

  4. One thing that seems notable is that while so far Melbourne hasn’t followed Sydney down to a great extent, previously, such as 2008 and 2003, it did, so now would be a good time to get your Melbourne IP on the market, if you didn’t sell it already.

  5. Interested to know what SE qld is doing. In the lead up to the games the govt choked long term apartment leases by holding them for availability during the games. Additionally everyone else with an apartment or property held off on long term leases so they can airbnb and get rich all the while the population boomed due to all the money and jobs artificially created by the entire circus. It was almost impossible to secure a long term lease and I think that was all deliberately by design as this artificial shortage increased property prices dramatically as interstate investors flooded in. I think the powers that be were hoping for massive property sales during the games.

    Funnily, most airbnb’ers couldn’t rent their apartments during the games due to the lack of visitors and now as the money dries up there will be a mass exodus of people in search of a job.

    • I’m sure it’ll all come out eventually but I knew a few people who piled into GC property a couple of years ahead of the games hoping to make a killing by flipping to a tsunami of foreign and interstate buyers.

      • While I have nothing against these people as they are (notionally) friends, I thought it was ill-judged and I’m a big believer in people wearing the consequences of their actions.

  6. if sydney is down anything less than 10% peak to trough through this cycle, then I would say that’s a huge disappointment, given all of the sky is falling doomsday scenario housing posts that this site churns out, esp considering the relentless pushing of narratives like no real wages growth, royal commission, macroprudential tightening, risk of external shocks, disappearance of the foreign buyer bid, IO resets, higher offshore funding costs, etc etc. If the coalescing of these perfect storm factors can’t even produce a house price decline greater than the 2003-2006 period, then I will throw in the towel join the “it’s different this time” brigade.

    • Nearly half way there in Sydney, and re-acceleration over last couple of weeks. (Kusher’s chart above shows 4% or just short down from peak, but CoreLogic Daily Indices shows 177.13 on 14/9/17 and 169.43 this morning giving 4.3% down)

      • Positive feedback loops enhance or amplify changes; this tends to move a system away from its equilibrium state and make it more unstable. Negative feedbacks tend to dampen or buffer changes; this tends to hold a system to some equilibrium state making it more stable

    • I reckon the Inner West saw the most irrational exuberance and to be honest as someone who lives here, J can’t see why it’s so special other than the fact that it isn’t far West Sydney lol.

      Fools and their money or I should say debt.

    • TailorTrashMEMBER

      Got to feel sorry for those poor agents …..commissions getting reduced because the banks won’t lend money to people who can’t pay it back to buy houses they can’t afford ……..this is a disgrace …….something needs to be done ………

      That headline . “ never been more afforadable “ sounds a little it belongs in Domain

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