CBA still an Aussie dollar uber-bull

Via Forexlive comes CBA:

The Aussie may have a “more subdued” appreciation path given that the RBA appears in no rush to raise rates

Base case is still for AUD/USD to trade higher towards 0.83 bye year-end

Sees the AUD rising thanks to solid economic activities and improving global growth and favourable Australian balance of payments

US dollar is on a downward trend

Risks are that RBA holds rates longer than expected, US-China trade tensions and faster pace of Fed rate hikes

CBA expects the RBA to hike rates in November to 1.75%

CBA bullishness is as reliable as the RBA and Treasury. Disregard!

FYI, MB has launched a new Australian dollar forecast index which will be updated regularly to keep you abreast of market outlooks. See it here.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.