The growth rate in the Leading Index remains in positive territory signalling above trend growth over much of the remainder of 2018. Drivers of the slowdown in the month have been from the domestic components – a slowing labour market; and some weakness in housing while rising short term interest rates have reflected liquidity pressures from global markets.
Westpac’s own forecast for growth in 2018 is 2.7%, around trend, and therefore somewhat weaker than is currently implied by the Leading Index.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
