Showgrounds development to absorb one month’s population growth

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By Leith van Onselen

We are continually told by the development lobby and politicians that the solution to affordable housing is more supply – that we just need to build more dwellings and Sydney’s and Melbourne’s chronic housing woes will be rectified.

Yesterday, The AFR reported that a $3 billion project to construct 3,600 dwellings on a 9-hectare parcel of land within the Showground Station Precinct – located 35 kilometres north-west from the Sydney CBD – is awaiting approval from the Hills Shire Council, and would help to alleviate Sydney’s housing affordability pressures:

Led by a syndicate of owners and stakeholders including property group Tangarra’s Raymond Younan and builder Decode founder Sam El Rihani, the new masterplan project will also offer another 360 of the most affordable apartments for purchase by first-home buyers. Apartment prices are likely to start from $500,000…

“We are working on the details of our offer, but I can guarantee a good deal for first-home buyers with the successful future owners probably having to have their name drawn out of a hat by a government representative,” project chief executive Joe Chiha said.

The group, while awaiting approval, is negotiating with several community housing providers to administer the rental apartments…

The site was a two-year amalgamation of 76 properties now rezoned for housing use, Mr Chiha said.

The NSW Department of Planning and Environment and the Hills Shire Council have a vision to alter the once-rural area into an urban centre as demand for housing continues to rise amid growing population in Sydney. The land rezone is part of the state’s efforts to open up more land where cheaper homes can be built…

Projects like this always sound impressive on the surface and give the illusion that Sydney’s housing woes are being overcome via planning. But when viewed against Sydney’s break-neck population growth – projected at 87,000 people a year over the next 20 years (77,000 via net overseas migration) – the result is far less impressive.

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Let’s assume these shoebox apartments accommodate an average of two people per dwelling, taking the total number housed by these proposed 3,600 dwellings to 7,200 people. Then, this Showground’s project would accommodate a mere one month’s worth of Sydney population growth some time in the distant future! Big deal.

I hope the NSW Government is planning to roll-out new projects like this every single month for the next several decades, because that’s what will be required to outrun the population ponzi choking Sydney.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.