The Grattan Institute’s latest housing report explicitly stated that if Australia cannot build enough housing and infrastructure to keep pace with population growth, then the pragmatic thing to do is cut immigration, thereby relieving demand.
On Friday, the Urban Development Institute of Australia’s (UDIA) Victorian branch admitted that the building industry is ill-equipped to build enough homes to meet the needs of Melbourne’s ballooning population:
VICTORIA’S peak development industry body has predicted the state needs to add 60,000 new homes to its landscape each year for more than a decade to house a swelling population.
But the Urban Development Institute of Australia Victorian has warned that getting enough builders to complete almost 10,000 more homes than were built in either of the past two financial years could be a challenge.
The UDIA branch’s latest Residential Development Index shows even with the industry operating at record levels, the 78,000 estimated building approvals for this financial year will add only 60,840 additional homes to the state’s supply, as some existing properties are demolished to make way for new ones.
The UDIA also estimates as many as 8000 of these homes will become holiday homes or otherwise unavailable as full-time residences, leaving a 3680 shortfall against the demand for new homes to accommodate the rising population…
The anticipated deficit would follow shortfalls of more than 11,000 new homes made available for the state’s burgeoning population over the past two financial years…
The predicted 60,000 new home requirement is subject to no shift in the 78 per cent of approvals that currently translate to an increase in the number of home’s in the state, and population following predicted trends.
The below charts tell the story.
The driver of the surge in Melbourne’s population increase is clearly record immigration-fueled population growth, which drove an insane 145,000 increase in Victoria’s population in the year to June (circa 125,000 in Melbourne):
And such strong population growth has clearly overwhelmed the record level of construction that has taken place across Melbourne:
Melbourne’s dwelling construction has already begun to roll over, as shown above, which means that the housing supply-demand balance will likely worsen, driving further rental cost escalation and a further evaporation in affordable rental homes. We all know who will be loser: Aussie kids.
Yet again, this highlights the absurdity of Australia’s mass immigration ‘Big Australia’ policy, which is driven by the federal government without due consideration of its implications on state budgets, housing, infrastructure, or overall livability.
