ASX and Australian dollar hold on as futures rebound

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The Aussie dollar has lifted this morning:

Bonds are mixed:

XJO has broken the February low paving the way for more:

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But it is holding off the worst today with US futures up solidly:

Dalian is bumping along at the lows:

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Big Iron is still hanging on though FMG is creeping towards is fateful date with $4.50:

Big Gas is up and I’ve had to revise my view on oil. If Trump pulls out of the Iran deal, although it will be unilateral, he will punish those that trade with Islamic Republic. Oil may or may not go higher but it’s going to struggle to go lower:

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Big Gold is so far proving a decent hedge against trade wars. I remain skeptical:

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Big Sleazy is in free fall. This is not just broader markets. This is the royal commission and funding costs:

If CBA falls through its previous lows in the high $68s then all bets are off for it and Australia. That’s a bearish descending triangle forming:

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Big Puswad is getting the message today. Less credit equals less of it:

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Not pretty but could be worse.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.