Goldman on firming US inflation before tonight’s CPI:
Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year.
…We highlight three key drivers of the core PCE acceleration to 1.8% by end-2018 in our forecast: a 0.15pp boost from the pass-through from higher energy prices and a weaker dollar, a 0.1-0.15pp lift from a tighter labor market, and a 0.1pp jump from the Verizon effect dropping out.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
