Coalition sets its course for immigration suicide

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Well, folks, we’ve done our best to turn the immigration debate (and will continue to do so) but it appears that for now we have failed:

Immigration Minister Peter Dutton has dismissed Tony Abbott’s calls to cut Australia’s migration numbers by 80,000 a year, saying the current settings are right.

…Addressing the National Press Club this afternoon, Mr Dutton said he had made a statement last week that he had made many times before, saying it was similar to comments made by former prime minister John Howard, “in terms of the way in which our numbers should be constructed and the policies should be delivered from year to year”.

“That is that our programs should act and operate in the best interests of our country,” Mr Dutton said.

“As I pointed out before, essentially our two-thirds, one-third mix of skills to non-skills within the visa program has continued as it did in the Howard days because there is economic benefit, as well as a social dividend. My judgment is we’ve got the settings right.”

“There’s an economic benefit to bringing people in who are skilled, who will work and pay taxes and contribute to society,” he said.

“It’s not just a social dividend. There’s a significant economic dividend.

“We need to make sure that people are integrating into our society, they’re adhering to Australian law, they’re adhering to our values and we made that announcement last year around some of the citizenship changes which went to exactly that point: we want the migrants who came to Australia in the late 40s, early 50s out of the Second World War, war-torn Europe who educated themselves, worked hard, educated their children, contributed enormously to the success of this country that we enjoy today.

And get this:

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton is looking at cutting red tape around importing temporary skilled migrants for businesses with a history of complying with rules around foreign workers.

In a wide-ranging speech at the National Press Club, Mr Dutton also indicated facial recognition technology would soon be used to identify passengers at airports instead of passports and flagged tightening up anti-terror laws to stop dual-citizen foreign fighters returning to Australia.

He also indicated his interest in making school children pledge their loyalty to Australia, similar to how migrants do when they become citizens.

With the last wave of changes to the skilled migration program to take effect next month as part of the Turnbull government’s “Aussie jobs first” pitch, business leaders have raised concerns they will hamper their ability to recruit staff and attract top overseas talent.

The Business Council of Australia has urged the government that companies with a good track record of hiring and training local workers should have access to foreigners to fill a wider range of occupations and let them stay longer.

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Yes, you read that right. Soon businesses will be importing labour directly through their own human resources departments no questions asked.

With Scott Morrison piling into Abbott as well that looks like the end of the road for any imminent Coalition policy switch. Indeed, such strident opposition probably also means no leadership challenge to Malcolm Turnbull, either. That said, Abbott has the bit between his teeth:

Mr Abbott told Sydney radio station 2GB this afternoon that he was not against immigration.

“I’m in favour of immigration. It’s the rate of immigration that’s the problem,” Mr Abbott said.

“I think Scott’s problem is that he’s been captured by his department.

“Treasury is always in favour of more migration.

“The point that I make is that we cannot let the Treasury’s accounting rules determine what is in our long term and medium term best national interest.”

Mr Abbott said he wanted the government to win the next election.

“Sure, people like Scott can say everything we’re doing now is right, but if you believe the polls, and it was the prime minister, let’s face it, who set such great store by the polls, if you believe the polls obviously we aren’t doing everything right, and if we expect to win the next election, if we want to have a fighting chance of winning the next election, some things have got to change, and this is something which we could well change which I think would be principled, pragmatic, and maybe even popular,” he said.

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Too right. Given this is the only policy shift available to kill off One Nation, the combined declarations in favour of endless mass immigration amount to an electoral suicide note. I remain firmly of the view that the Coalition will be forced to adopt a lower immigration platform in opposition so yesterday’s utterances will come back to haunt them as well.

With the Labor Party now a near certainty to win the next election, the major cities can look forward to years more of falling living standards, though Bill Shorten offered a glimmer of hope:

Mr Shorten said Mr Abbott’s call was the “latest bomb” in Mr Abbott’s war with Mr Turnbull when asked whether he agreed believed Australia’s migrant intake was too high.

“You’re referring to Mr Abbott’s latest bomb that he’s thrown at Mr Turnbull,” he said.

“Let’s talk about what Mr Abbott’s doing. This is just another part of the never-ending war between Abbott and Turnbull.

“This morning the Treasurer has torpedoed Mr Abbott’s idea. The Treasurer has said that Mr Abbott’s idea is going to cost Australia $5bn.

“We all know what this issue is about, it’s not about immigration, it’s about Abbott versus Turnbull.”

Mr Shorten said he did have “some sympathy” for people complaining that the rules around bringing in temporary visa workers taking jobs of Australians are too slack.

“Labor’s proposing to tighten up that and we want to increase the cost of those visas so employers are forced to hire Australians,” he said.

“The other thing I want to do is save TAFE. I want to make sure that young Australians when they finish school can get an apprenticeship, so I think there’s tightening up we can do around the visa requirements, but as for the rest of the debate, Morrison’s torpedoed Abbott, Abbott’s tried to ambush Turnbull, it’s just another day at the office for the LNP.

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It appears the new battleground will be around temporary visas. There is scope in Shorten’s comments to follow the New Zealand path of cutting temporary entrants. And if Dutton is going to outsource visas to corporate HR departments then the Coalition, unbelievably, will have positioned Labor as the immigration conservative.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.