APRA investment lending points property down
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APRA is out with January lending numbers and specufestors continue to take it on the chin. The year on year growth rate is now down to just 1.9%:
| ANZ | CBA | MAC | NAB | WBC | BOQ | BEN | SUN | Total | |
| Jan-18 | 2.0 | -3.6 | -3.0 | 4.5 | 6.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.9 |
| Dec-17 | 2.0 | -2.9 | -5.0 | 5.8 | 5.9 | -1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Nov-17 | 2.4 | -2.0 | -6.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | -3.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Oct-17 | 2.5 | -0.8 | -8.0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | -2.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Sep-17 | 2.5 | -0.1 | -8.6 | 5.7 | 7.1 | -3.8 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| Aug-17 | 2.4 | 0.9 | -8.3 | 5.8 | 7.4 | -4.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 3.8 |
| Jul-17 | 2.2 | 1.9 | -6.3 | 5.9 | 7.4 | -5.7 | 7.9 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| Jun-17 | 1.8 | 5.7 | -6.6 | 6.0 | 7.2 | -6.3 | 8.8 | -0.3 | 4.9 |
| May-17 | 0.9 | 7.3 | -6.6 | 5.3 | 6.7 | -6.5 | 3.3 | -0.1 | 4.8 |
| Apr-17 | 0.2 | 8.2 | -6.0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | -7.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 4.7 |
| Mar-17 | -0.4 | 8.4 | -6.3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -6.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Feb-17 | -1.1 | 8.4 | -6.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | -6.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| Jan-17 | -1.7 | 7.9 | -5.7 | 4.6 | 5.1 | -3.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
Only WBC and NAB are holding up and even they are fading. The chart:
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There’ll be some offset in the non-bank sector but given the dominant market share of these banks, and the fact that investors are the marginal price setter in property, you’d be hard-pressed to see anything other than more downside for house prices right here.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.