An angry Mr IQ shows whites of the eyes

The latest videos from Mr IQ are a marvelous insight into the turmoil engulfing Australia’s specufestor class as property prices fall. First, his macro assessment:

But it’s his angry diatribe on property prospects that is really worth your time, compulsive fidget spinner and all:

Don’t scoff. He’s the engine room of your economy.

Comments

    • There’s a lot more derangement coming, in fact it seems to be speeding up. Sellers are starting to panic in Brisbane:

      [buyers] are going in and offering that 5 per cent to 10 per cent under the price, particularly for the established market, and they are getting results.

      Hi-rise Harry & co. have enough cash flow to sit on the sidelines and not panic sell, but small mom and pop investors want to get out now.

      We’ll see if the contagion spreads to Sydney and Melbourne.

      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-10/brisbane-apartment-buyers-market-downturn/9407918

    • It’s a deflation/inflation end-of-currency-as-we-know-it scenario where property goes down making it ideal to invest before the next mega boom because we need to keep the population ponzi going. Was nice to see his lunatic rantings get one thing right!

  1. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

  2. It’s a great presentation style and in future Straya’s economic managers should present in white T-shirt and thongs and maybe jeans with some crack on show.

    • Yes, white tee shirts are the go for billionaires making presentations nowadays. He’s very literate and the words just flow from his mouth. Why do the cars on the highway behind him keep disappearing though?

      • At first I thought he had this strange tic, like a Tourettes sufferer. Then I realised he edits his ramblings every 2 seconds.

  3. LOL From a speculators market to a sellers market to a buyers market to a foreclosers maket to a liquidators market. How’s that for a pecking order or feeding stratum, i.e., food chain?

  4. He must be under stress and lost few clients. Some clients must have lost money already and started complaining. He is probably feeling the heat as cash flow slows.

    • We had joy
      We had fun
      We had season in the sun
      But my clients are all gone
      And the bank won’t lend me none!

  5. “Warren Buffett, I think he’s a big idiot” Well on the plus side at least Mr IQ knows who he is.
    I also noticed a lot more expletives sprinkled in the diatribe, is the pressure building? The whole Bitcoin thing was an act of desperation and now that has failed him I suspect the writing is on the wall. It is just a matter of time.

    The sad thing is how many of his sycophants has he taken with him? How many hapless patsies have “taken action” and are now “living life on their terms”. I think Nathan might consider moving to Bali before the sh*t here truly hits the fans. There will likely be some former followers gunning for him!

  6. His continual swearing reflects a very stressed mind. So amateurish it is laughable. And people ‘buy’ shit off this guy? He is getting fatter and greyer. Heart attack candidate.

    • More than the buyers, what about the lenders he has to deal with? I know the big 5 wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole and it is clear that his third level non bank 17% lender has cut him off (he made references to tightening credit a few videos ago he confessed to missing some payments). He must be sweating on getting reinancing for a fair chunk of his book. If you had to sit down and ask for tens of millions of refinancing from another lender, would you want them to see that performance????

      I suspect that it would give even the scummiest payday lender pause.

  7. This comes from Australian property forum by someone who used his services;

    Nathan Birch and B Invested is a Scam, and he is a spruiker. I know from experience.

    I used their services, he got me 2 properties, 1 was good, but only because he bought it for market value and it went up directly after, the other he said was a “No Brainer”, he literally put “this is a no brainer” in an email to me. I must admit i felt i didn’t need to do much homework based on that, but i should have. I just did the deal on the 2nd one. It turns out it was 15% over market value. Exactly the same properties in exactly the same development (and very similar ones near my property) were sold directly after for 15% less.
    He says he does 1) below market value – lie 2) potential for upside – yep through the boom it’s a given, but let’s see how it will go now, and 3) positive geared – true. (but he overstated the potential rental rate, but true it’s +ve geared)
    Why am i paying you $10k? I can rip myself off thanks Nathan.

    Listen to this: i went to their Xmas party – and every one had stories that i had. Like 80% of people i spoke to had these sorts of stories. But they were still there. Literally one couple said they felt like they got a property over market value in the end, they’ve struggled to rent it – and shortly after they did a happy customer video that is on the b invested you tube channel – i couldn’t believe it. Check them out, youtube search “Roy & Rowena bought 4 properties in just 6 months” – what they were saying to me, is not at all what they’re saying on the video. The guy says “It’s the best thing i’ve done”, i couldn’t believe it. After the Xmas party i have had nothing to do with them since. I actually made a complaint about the price i paid, “do you want me to make an enquiery with Nathan” Linda Lieu said – “yes ok” – never heard from Linda again.
    I think all these no hopers just suck up to him hoping he’ll throw them a bone eventually. They will be disappointed.

    He’s just sitting there collecting his $10k each time, for no work, and for properties that are over market value.
    Special mention to Sophie from B Invested – she’s useless. I was half way through buying one of the properties and she just never responded, never returned my calls etc. I literally had to close the deal myself. Unbelievable.

    Nathan and his initial investors all did good deals, i met one of the first investors he helped. he had some really good deals – but this is back when he had like 5 clients, was charging them $3k – $5k and property investing wasn’t in vouge as much – and surprise surprise they all rode the biggest property boom in history. But everyone who uses B invested now will be struggling.

    It is so bad.. Just do it yourself. I’d use Empower Wealth or Ripeho

    • “… were sold directly AFTER for 15% less”
      So rather then these clients accepting housing can also fall in value their reasoning is it must be some kind of a scam as property only goes up or sideways.

    • If you’re buying 4 properties in 6 months and not doing some legwork yourself then you’re at the mercy of whoever you’re just handing money over to. Doing a promo video for a company that sold you something, before you’ve had a chance to get a feel for whether the product panned out, is also pretty careless.

      Oh well, they will all go down together.

      • Pat – “Gee, we sure are clever property investors!”

        Rowena – “Did we just hand some guy $40,000 for buying some sh*t units we could have bought ourselves? That’s like twenty Bali holidays.”

        Rosie Batty – “No Pat! Don’t do it!”

    • Nah, nah – “They are losers who go out there and sit there in their little s**ty life that they live being unhappy and not f**king doing anything about it and they will be just driving to work with the sh*ts not taking action, listening to the bullsh*t media saying ‘this is how its going to happen and this is how it is’….”

  8. Hill Billy 55MEMBER

    The beard says he instinctively knows that we are in for recessionary times. Through history, when the economy turns, the beards grow and the hems on the dresses fall.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Yep noticed the beard thought it was misplaced photo for previous story of Melbourne Homelessness.

    • WW’s right with the new bikini. Just a bit of string & a couple of eyepatches. No lowering of hems yet…… maybe next year they’ll come back with trendy head to toe as the new black.

    • Yip, as soon as sports teams start loosing the beards begin to grow.(admittedly they are more trendy at present)

  9. Interesting how NB recognizes the importance of tremendous immigration volume to his program. It’s as if the loans required to join the club were fully backed ( in spirit) from an appreciative government that sincerely needed the help in yet another public-private partnership and no ‘investor’ would be forsaken.

    Am waiting eagerly for the coming ‘warranty of possession’ update; will be very helpful to his ‘believers’ who find the impossible is possible after all.

  10. As I said on the Weekend Link, I quite like his style!

    He covers all the major Macrobusiness themes: ponzi(s), wage slaves, immigration to juice the economy, central banks, precariousness of stock markets, asset bubbles everywhere, potential for Government intervention etc. he know people need houses and on this point he’s sticking to his guns. Probably the only major divergence from MB.

    Funny thing is had House and Holes or the Unconventional Economist said what NB said, all the NB critics above would be going Gaga in agreement. In fact, I think HnH and UE have said some pretty similar things?

    • I agree – he actually has a better understanding of the economy than most! Like you said he has listed the major themes that MB cover regularly that underpin the Aus economy (ponzi, wage slaves, immigration etc)… the difference between MB readers and him is the fact that he has acted on the opportunities presented in front of him, went ‘all in’ on property speculation and, presumably, made a motza. While many of us have literally stayed on the side lines and moaned how crazy things have become! It’s only now things maybe unraveling for him…

      • I choose option 3, building capital that isn’t dependent on a single illiquid asset class or on me going into leverage to the tune of multiple lifetimes worth of debt. Whaaaat?! That’s crazy! 😉

      • So, what you’re saying is that it’s better to have been ‘rich’ — even if only on paper and for a relatively short period — than never to have experienced the thrill of being at the top of a pyramid scheme?

        This is the same logic you hear when stock market bulls mock the bears for ‘missing out’ on one of the greatest bull markets (since 2009) ever. The issue with this statement is that you only get to keep your riches if you sell out at the right time. 99% of people who have ridden this latest bull market up will end up riding it all the way down again …. and then sell at the bottom — such is investor psychology.

        You ain’t rich until it’s in the bank. Period.

      • I say undertake a diversified investment portfolio as opposed to taking on eye watering debt in the middle of a property bubble, suddenly Dom’s onto me.

        Even if I still had heavy exposure to US equities, I could see a full on meltdown and still be ahead of a property specufestor in the same boat, as I can just walk away or sit on them, they can’t; debts still need to be serviced long.

    • Yep, plenty of resident circle jerk parrots here at MB. In the hope that property will crash back to sensible levels (which I no longer think will happen – it may drop somewhat in ‘real’ terms (inflation adjusted) but not the nominal price ‘crash’ bears are hoping for) the parrots cling to every word that HnH writes without applying any critical thought.

      NB may be in some tough times now but if he manages to ride through it he will probably still come out ahead of those who listened to the housing crash proponents. (not saying ALL property investors will be in the same position, obviously he is not in the same class as the mum and dad investors that rely on ppl like him to guide them)

      The last couple of years have destroyed the “China hard landing” theme. The theory was based on China having completed its urbanisation but commodity prices have shown that they have other tricks up their sleeve.

      • ”it may drop somewhat in ‘real’ terms (inflation adjusted) but not the nominal price ‘crash’ bears are hoping for)”

        I remember when Lehmans was a respected and strong institution.

        Never say never.


      • it may drop somewhat in ‘real’ terms

        It already has – Sydney house prices are only up 0.6% yoy according to Corelogic, against 1.9% inflation.
        Even Melbourne has apparently only managed 0.04% growth over the last quarter, according to the same source against presumably approximately 0.4% quarterly inflation.
        Sydney seeing sub zero nominal yoy growth from here just means they fail to see around 3% quarterly growth by the end of March which seems a lay down misere,

      • “It already has – Sydney house prices are only up 0.6% yoy according to Corelogic, against 1.9% inflation.”

        Lets see if it maintains its downward trajectory and momentum for any reasonable length of time. My point being that those who are expecting a substantial crash in the nominal median price (eg. >20% fall in nominal prices) will likely be sorely disappointed. What we’ll probably get is 20% fall in ‘real values’ over an extended period of time….meanwhile life goes on and those holding out will have lost 10-15 yrs of their life. Happy to be proven wrong but after observing what has happened in Aust real estate over the last 10-15 yrs I no longer put much faith in ‘crash’ predictions.

      • Dear diary, today I read a post from random internet user, downtownfrump. He said our record levels of debt were entirely sustainable and would, at worst, result in a gentle plateauing affect (before once again accelerating to all time record highs). I think he is right, and can see no scenario in which our ironclad and independent finance sector is unable to proffer ever greater sums of record cheap credit forever; after all, as he sagely acknowledges, we haven’t had a crash yet *insert poorly sketched smiley face*.


      • What we’ll probably get is 20% fall in ‘real values’ over an extended period of time

        After seeing something like a 100% increase in real property prices in my home city of Melbourne since I joined the workforce (extrapolated from here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-06/home-values-fall-by-one-quarter-in-perth-over-last-decade/9397444), I’ll be delighted to take a 20% fall in real house prices, irrespective of what that means for the nominal price.

        I’d also observe that a 20% real-terms fall would wipe off two thirds of the real gains of the last decade according to the linked article, which seems at least material to me.

      • And here one of the resident circle jerk parrots emerges –

        “Dear diary, today I read a post from random internet user, downtownfrump. He said our record levels of debt were entirely sustainable and would, at worst, result in a gentle plateauing affect (before once again accelerating to all time record highs). I think he is right, and can see no scenario in which our ironclad and independent finance sector is unable to proffer ever greater sums of record cheap credit forever; after all, as he sagely acknowledges, we haven’t had a crash yet *insert poorly sketched smiley face*.”

        Other prime specimens include bcnich, Timmeh etc..

        I take your poor attempt at discrediting my post as evidence that you cling dearly to the crash predictions and that any suggestion to the contrary cuts deep…. Lol

        No one doubts that debt is high. No one doubts that Australia is in a bad situation regarding housing. But NB and others on MB seem to understand that there is a difference in what should happen and what will likely happen – take advantage of the situation as you see fit. Good luck with your crash. 😉

        PS. Dont pull too hard, your brethren might not like it

      • @downtownfrump
        I love the MB pro crash circle jerk. I pray their is sufficient, worshipping stimulatiion to bring on a super messy bang in much the same way property prices got jacked up in the first place.

      • @DTF,
        Allow me to translate your in depth analysis of Australian housing: “bah, baaah, ba baaaah”
        Stick to Murdoch media, mate 😉👍🏻

    • Yes, he actually makes some good points, though partly for the wrong reasons as his logic is all over the shop, not surprising when you have a housing & credit blind spot.

      But I can’t blame him for taking advantage of the economy Aussie governments have created to date.

  11. Parasites like these is the reason why there is homelessness and misery on the streets of Straya…Good to see that natural selection is taking care of such scum bags….burn baby ….burn

    • He is certainly trying to profit from the housing shortage, but I don’t see how he has caused it.

      The only way I can blame this type of person is that they have celebrated the housing disaster and thereby taken attention away from the need to solve the crisis. There are suburbs full of normal people gloating about how prices have risen and how much money they are collecting off tenants.
      By my way of thinking, decent people should be appalled by the prices and rents that other people are being required to pay for shelter.
      It is a disgrace.

      • “There are suburbs full of normal people gloating about how prices have risen and how much money they are collecting off tenants”

        The trouble is that many people made easy money without effort which in turn made them lazy, complacent and delusional. Once one gets accustomed to the flow of easy money, and then the flow stops, it will be hard to make adjustments.

      • “He is certainly trying to profit from the housing shortage, but I don’t see how he has caused it” .

        By him and his ilk electing his own brand of politicians that perpetuated the situation and profited from others misery.

        I will celebrate on the streets his demise and his elected buffoons when it all gets pear shaped

      • This RE bubble IS RBA policy. Throw in Treasury, Governments, Banks.
        Is it his fault just because he reads the political and financial environment correctly (not defending his activities – just we need to recognize just what the problems actually are then set about taking corrective action – including firing and taking away the pensions of anyone involved.)

      • Yeah, I don’t blame him or any of the others for correctly reading the market on the way up & riding the gravy train. The only ones to blame are those that created the environment ie governments of both ilks & regulator bodies for their complete failure.

      • The trouble is that many people made easy money without effort which in turn made them lazy, complacent and delusional. Once one gets accustomed to the flow of easy money, and then the flow stops, it will be hard to make adjustments.

        Especially all those who have purchased the next best liability with all that equity mate, like every bloody $60k+ SUV I see on the roads around Sydney. I just don’t know how they all afford it.

  12. This sounds like someone who is in serious financial stress. Panicky and highly strung. Will be worth watching.

    • Yes, it does. But I am struggling to understand why he keeps uploading market updates. What is he trying to achieve here?

      Does he think watching his video will inspire confidence?

      Was he demanded by a third party to stand in front of a camera?

      • Ego. Plain and simple. No one calls themselves “Mr IQ” unless they have a big ego that needs feeding with a constant belief that the adoring public is listening and hanging on his every word – the word of the only guy in Aus who understands finance n sh/t!

    • I suspect these video updates will stop soon. Surely he can’t keep them going while the bank sues for non-settlements and missed interest payments?? Even Nathan knows the end is near.

  13. I’m writing this and listening to him squeal about bringing in more ‘slaves’ to buy his houses. This guy is as low as it goes I reckon. At least he’s out there and saying it. Immigrants will learn the hard way I guess.

  14. I don’t understand the mockery. Give it 10 years and this stuff will be up there with Warren Buffett’s shareholder letters in terms of reverence.

    So many effing insights!

  15. Sounds like my year 8 finance teacher,…on a day when my finace teacher was away and the wood work teacher used to take the class.
    …..and he thought he knew everything

    • You wouldn’t think the shortage was so funny if you were paying a high rent and/or facing a long commute to work and/or trying to save up to buy a house.

      From the video you posted:

      Row after row of new houses – all empty
      20% of housing across Spain sits empty

      They built a town for a population of 25000 and now there are 3500 living there.

      Can you tell me what are the similarities between Spain and say Melbourne or Sydney where the housing shortage is the worst?

      • You’ve put in the hard yards, it isn’t a bad time to be a tenant I think. It will come clear in time. Read WW’s post on links for the news on the GC.

        I think Australia has more cranes than North America.

      • Been to Spain? The migrants (mainly eastern european) packed up and left in the drives they came in. Now a massive cash only job market and the place has never really recovered.

        The outer suburbs of Melbourne particularly the West, where all those estates are going up will resemble this in a year or two – cheap builds in sh1t areas packed with migrants who could not afford it in the first place.

      • [email protected]
        Firstly, is your moniker your email address?

        What could possibly go wrong, buddy?

        The immigrants could keep coming, the rich Chinese could keep buying, and millions of Aussies could end-up stuck renting those horrible condos instead of a decent house with backyard – which this country should be easily capable of providing.


      • The immigrants could keep coming, the rich Chinese could keep buying,

        Given Sydney house prices failed to beat inflation over the last twelve months (per Corelogic), and likewise Melbourne house prices failed to beat inflation over the last three months – despite the highest NOM in almost a decade – the risk is actually that we don’t have a further massive increase in immigrants and rich Chinese buyers from where we are now.

        <1% yoy Sydney house price growth isn't much to show for NSW-wide population growth of 1.6%

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        Not sure we do have a shortage here. For example. Went for a 3 kms walk today through one of Melbourne SE Beachside suburb (about 30 kms from the city) and about 1 in every 9 houses was clearly unoccupied.


      • Not sure we do have a shortage here

        Seems highly doubtful there is a shortage of roofs in Melbourne rather than a distribution problem. I live less than 10km from the city, and there are multiple properties in my street that are obviously unoccupied and have been so for many months, including next door (old lady died, son has spent half an hour per weekend for two years and counting getting it ready for something. At that pace, like painting the Sydney Harbour Bridge)

  16. “Don’t scoff. He’s the engine room of your economy”
    Blimey! That’s one for a frame in the pool room!!! It just smashes into the brain. RBA, Treasury, Govt are all in with this bloke.

  17. That’s too funny. The second video is absolute comedy gold. Please everyone.. have a watch. it was the best laugh I’ve had in days. I love that at 2:50 in the video he’s says “Warren Buffet, first I’m not a fan of his I think he f### stupid” and then he proceeds to quote him …love it. Seriously do you want to take financial advice from a kid who doesn’t understand why Warren Buffet is considered to be one of the worlds best investors?

      • [Buffett] didn’t invest in Australian residential property.

        Good point there. Leveraged Australian residential property has easily outperformed Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway since Buffett took over. Leveraged Aussie housing has even outperformed a theoretical leveraged Berkshire Hathaway position.

        If a reckless gambler had been able to obtain a high 70% margin loan on Berkshire Hathaway they would have been wiped out by a margin call. (dropped 43.7 percent from their all-time closing high of $149,200. https://www.cnbc.com/id/27810126/)

        By contrast a conservative mum-and-dad investor in Aussie homes could easily pull 80% LTV on a Sydney joint and pyramid effortlessly with the occasional revaluation and refi WITH NO CHANCE OF A MARGIN CALL.

        Buffett likes to come across like the wise old man of money, and craps-on about buying investments that have a moat around them (https://www.bing.com/search?q=buffett+moat)

        But I ask:

        Has the old codger never seen a map of Australia?
        Our country’s housing market has the biggest bloody moat on earth around it!

  18. That is too funny. I just about drowned the keyboard with coffee when he quoted Buffett despite thinking he is “a bit of idiot”. I get the feeling that our young friend is about to become the poster boy for that quote. The Australian property market hasn’t had a decent shakeout since the early nineties. Mr IQ and his fellow “investors” are the bunnies in the headlight.

  19. Banking Royal Commission should first talk to guys like this to get a really good understanding of how banks operate their equity ponzi lending scheme. Really unbelievable retail mum and dad investors can leverage to this extent. Wonder which of the Big 4 Nathan’s loans are with.

    • I believe he has a close “working relationship” with Westpac. You may also recall WBC nearly went to the wall in the early nineties due to its overexposure to commercial real estate, he he he

      • Yes, borrowers who have overdue accounts with high balances always have ‘close relationships’ with their bank. The bank puts them in a special section called “High Risk”, “Potential Loss” or “Workout” and maintain very regular contact indeed.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Rember it well, but this one is worse, mums and dads as opposed to a handful of high flyers.

  20. UrbanWastelandMEMBER

    Speaking of benders… It sounds like he’s pausing the recording every few seconds to snort another line

    • If I remember correctly he doesn’t drink or smoke…bt hey neither does Trump and luck how crazy he is.

      • FiftiesFibroShack

        @C. It’s letting Trump off easy with the crazy tag. He’s a know nothing with a personality disorder, but he’s sane.

  21. darklydrawlMEMBER

    Wow… I would love to see the unedited version of that. It was so heavily cut together in places. Hard to watch and harder to follow. Not sure the message was consisten or even logical. Odd.

      • darklydrawlMEMBER

        haha. An slightly too tight G-string – of course. That would explain the wriggling and swearing. But honestly, that was just cut to sh!t in places. Like a cut every word or two near the end. Just Wow….

  22. Scary thing is he’s probably dead right about the gov pouring (our) money in & changing policies as they try to keep the whole ponzi going

    • Well, the Fed did not bail out the Bear Stearns after all. He is dead if he cannot outlast Lehman Brothers.

  23. Well these videos clear up the question about which generation is destroying Australia. It is the millennials like Nathan, and not the baby boomers who have been pilloried on MB over many years. No doubt there are many GenX types involved as well.

    Baby boomers were just lucky to have bought their homes before Gens X and Y, when prices were much lower and we had a saner govt that that not follow Gen X&Y desire for open borders that has massively driven up the demand for housing and lowered real wages.

    I have been missed poster Owen who was pretty honest in pointing the finger at his own age cohort as a key culprit in Australia’s scams and bubbles. Tania is about the only one here that brings some balance into the discussion of where the blame resides.

    Gen X&Y will be screaming lower the rates and open the gates even more when the economic SHTF because they lack a willingness for unbiased self assessment and make unemotional decisions. These generations are complicit in every aspect of what government have done in recent years, often benefiting from managerial and regulatory roles in the pillaging of the country.

    (jkambah – just another unblemished and blameless (relatively speaking) baby boomer who is fed up with being blamed for other groups’ misbehaviour)

    • Even StevenMEMBER

      In my personal experience, baby boomers show very little awareness of the cost of housing (overwhelmingly the driver of cost of living) for younger generations:
      – Expensive education
      – Harder to get a job
      – Expensive housing

      Good for you if you are not one of those. But collectively boomers seem to exhibit a significant blind spot.

  24. “I don’t like the stockmarket as it is too manipulated.”
    =
    I don’t like the stockmarket as I can’t get any leverage and it is run by professional investors, not uneducated mum and dad investors.

    • Search: “professional investors”
      Replace: “algorithmic bots employed by professional investors”

      Fixed that for you.

  25. Infomercials on a supposedly serious current affairs programme. I’d bet my house deposits that he paid to advertise on SN.