What will Australia’s China backlash look like in 2018?

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Via SBS:

Japanese troops will be able to conduct military exercises more easily in Australia under an agreement Malcolm Turnbull is hoping to cement next week during his visit to Tokyo.

The prime minister will visit Japan on Thursday for an annual leaders’ dialogue with his counterpart Shinzo Abe.

The visit is Mr Turnbull’s first overseas trip since his government released its foreign policy white paper last year and coincides with a tense period in Australia’s relationship with China.

Beijing this week lodged an official protest with Australia’s embassy after International Development Minister Concetta Fierravanti-Wells criticised China’s assistance to tiny Pacific island nations as building “white elephant” projects and “roads to nowhere”.

And AFR:

Efforts need to be made to reassure Beijing an imminent defence agreement to boost cooperation between Australia and Japan is not aimed at containing China’s rise, former army chief Peter Leahy has warned ahead of Malcolm Turnbull’s visit to Tokyo on Thursday.

…Professor Leahy, who now heads Canberra University’s National Security Institute, said Australian and Japanese forces had served alongside each other in peacekeeping missions in Cambodia and East Timor, as well as in Iraq in 2005, so the VFA was a natural step.

“Australia is a security partner, friend and mentor for the Japanese as they have weaned themselves off their peace constitution,” he said, adding Australia was arguably second only to the US for working with Japan’s military.

Professor Leahy said the agreement would put some “meat on the bones” of the rejuvenated quadrilateral security dialogue that also includes India and the US but the government needed to make sure China did not misconstrue it as a threat and respond economically.

“We need to be careful that China doesn’t see this as an effort to contain their growth,” he said.

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Efforts do indeed need to be made. Not least because this is the thin end of the wedge. Australia is going to have to keep pushing back against Chinese influence.

The Turnbull Government has made a solid start on policy change but its rhetoric is ham-fisted. Last year’s Bennelong debacle flowing into impolitic comments on the Pacific – which are true but hardly the point – suggest the Government is in the throes of anti-Chinese sentiment.

One should never do and say the same thing in foreign policy. The push to oust foreign influence from Australian politics is aimed at all nations and should be couched as such or we will do ourselves undue harm.

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The odds of Chinese punishment for public Australian intransigence this year are already material. Intemperate public statements increase the risk of sudden (and unannounced) caps on tourist and/or student numbers.

Then again, given that’s what we need to liberate wage increases and soften property further, perhaps we should start a round of outright China bashing!

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.