This is a known known for those who follow the reality behind the facade that is the security policy – Australia’s defence forces really can’t defend Australia.
And it’s not just because of a half century long clinging to an American apron spring, its yet another failure to plan suitable risk management and logistics.
This could finally change if the new incoming Liberal Senator, former Major General Jim Molan get’s some traction after speaking the truth recently.
More from the ABC:
Jim Molan was the chief of operations for coalition forces in Iraq and will enter Federal Parliament next month, replacing former deputy Nationals leader Fiona Nash.
He has issued a stark warning about Australia’s readiness for war, saying the armed forces could be ineffective within 19 days if current stockpiles of petrol, diesel and aviation fuel run dry.
“We are almost unique throughout the world in that we don’t have a government-mandated strategic reserve of fuel,” Senator Molan said.
“You can have all the fantastic equipment this Government is building and buying, but if you haven’t got fuel and you haven’t got missiles for them, then we’ve got a discontinuity at the centre of our strategy.”
“There are things that we can probably never build in this country, such as the Joint Strike Fighter and the most advanced missiles,” he continued.
“But we should guarantee their delivery to Australia — which you can rarely do — or we should have them in warehouses.
“Unless we have a plan to get them when we need them … then I, as an ex-military commander, wouldn’t want to cross the start line in doing something militarily unless I had those warehouses behind me.”
The 2016 Defence White Paper warned Australia’s dependency on fuel imports was a risk given tensions in the South China Sea, which is a major shipping route.
Senator Molan said governments needed to better communicate the risks of not investing in defence.
Last year, United States President Donald Trump criticised NATO members and allies who failed to commit at least 2 per cent of their gross domestic product to defence spending.
While Australia has committed to that target — announcing $30 billion in additional spending in the next decade in the 2016 White Paper — Senator Molan said that might not be enough.
“If American power is relatively in decline, is 2 per cent (of GDP) enough?” he said.
“You can’t just hit 2 per cent and achieve military perfection, you’ve got to stay at that level of expenditure.”
Senator Molan has also warned that military support from the US is not guaranteed and the Federal Government needs to be more prepared.
“Australia should be thinking about the level of defence expenditure that we are prepared to commit ourselves if America was the centre pole of our defence policy and now may not be as strong as it once was,” Senator Molan said.
Alongside the ANZUS pact and commitment to Coalition and NATO actions and the reciprocal alliances that are implied, the ADF’s greatest bulwark is the huge logistical chain that any conventional force needs to have in place before threatening the continent. While amateurs concern themselves with technology and tactics, its the logistics of any war that matter foremost.
But this also applies in reverse. Australia has never invested in proper infrastructure, lines of communication nor a strategic reserve and has always relied on “just in time” and the kindness of others – usually through the payment of a few Diggers sent home in less than one piece (and then forgotten about until the next Anzac parade).
With the relationship with the number 1 provider of Australia security – the US Department of Defence – under strain due to a diplomatically inept President, Australia may need to start thinking wiser about its defence capabilities.
And while the simple solution is to up the defence budget, the smarter solution is to eschew the ridiculous purchases co-opted through the political-industrial complex (i.e subs, JSF etc etc), and to start building some warehouses.
Nah, she’ll be right mate. History will repeat as it always does down under.