NSW Premier ignored warnings negative gearing was inflating Sydney home values

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By Leith van Onselen

In late 2016, the Coalition erupted into civil war when NSW Planning Minister, Rob Stokes, threw a hand grenade at the Turnbull Government’s housing policy, arguing that changes to negative gearing are necessary to make housing more affordable:

“We should not be content to live in a society where it’s easy for one person to reduce their taxable contribution to schools, hospitals and other critical government ­services — through generous federal tax exemptions and the ownership of multiple properties — while a generation of working Australians find it increasingly difficult to buy one property to call home”…

Then NSW Premier, Mike Baird, seemingly backed his planning minister’s comments, telling the National Press Club that negative gearing ought to be considered as part of plans to deal with housing affordability:

“Yes, it should be considered,” Mr Baird said.

“Have I got a position yet on it? No I don’t”…

“I haven’t seen the modelling, Mr Baird said when he was asked about the issue on Tuesday…

“But if there is modelling or an approach that suggests there is an impact, a positive impact on affordability, well of course that’s something we should consider.

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Gladys Berejiklian took over from Mike Baird as Premier of NSW in January last year, replaced Rob Stokes as Planning Minister, and the protestations within the State Government over negative gearing ceased. This came despite Treasury officials explicitly warning Premier Berejiklian that negative gearing was pushing-up Sydney home values and making housing less affordable. From The SMH:

A cabinet briefing reveals that top Treasury officials advised NSW to advocate a review of negative gearing tax concessions because they were pushing up house prices, but just weeks after that advice was given, the then new Premier declined to challenge the federal Coalition’s support for the policy.

Ms Berejiklian declared housing affordability her top priority upon becoming Premier last year and said she was “open minded” on the issue.

But she soon apparently shut down the possibility of picking a fight with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over negative gearing policy despite just weeks earlier being being briefed by treasury officials that NSW should advocate the multi-billion dollar investor tax breaks be reviewed…

“I don’t feel at this stage that is something I would necessarily touch,” the Premier said last January. “If there is overwhelming advice one way or another … [then] of course I’ll raise that”…

But a leaked cabinet-in-confidence then-Treasurer Berejiklian’s department said studies showed that negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks, independently estimated to cost up to $12 billion a year, were causing “substantial distortions” in the property market and pushing up prices and should be reviewed.

NSW Labor’s shadow treasurer, Ryan Park, said the document proved both Liberal governments were hiding information from home buyers…

“[They] have been completely misleading the community,” he said. “When it comes to addressing this crisis the NSW Government have simply done too little too late”.

Liars, the lot of them.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.