NAB retail tracker projects Nasty Santa

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Via NAB:

• The NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index shows a slowdown in December following a strong November. Mapping through to the official measure of retail sales suggests a decline of 0.3% in December after a strong 1.2% rise in November to be published by the ABS when released on 6 February. The weaker result this month was driven by declines in household goods related to the introduction of the iPhone (the electronic goods sub-category fell 2.0% mom following a revised 3.8% increase in November), as well as in food, departments stores and ‘other retailing’.

• We should be cautious about reading too much into monthly movements in NAB’s data and the official ABS measure of retail sales at present. This is due to changing seasonal patterns (in this instance because of the introduction of Black Friday sales to Australia and the timing of the latest iPhone release). The underlying pace of growth however appears reasonable, with average growth in NAB’s Cashless Retail Index of 0.45% in November and December, and the “official” ABS measure expected to average 0.3% m/m.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.